Iran will conduct a confirmed direct missile or drone strike on Israeli territory within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 45% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-29.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining range has collapsed to 0% (structural conflict conditions), but dominant actor types remain 'calculating' for both Iran and Israel (30% each), and prior 30-day window for a direct Israel-Iran strike resolved denied, suggesting continued proxy-channel avoidance despite elevated tail risk.

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC+ will announce a production quota increase at its December 2026 ministerial meeting

geopolitical26%

China will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure (developer bailout, mortgage rate cut, or funding facility) within 30 days.

geopolitical28%

Russia and Ukraine will hold at least one additional publicly confirmed direct negotiation session, prisoner exchange, or ceasefire-related announcement within 14 days.

geopolitical76%HIT

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Iran will conduct a confirmed direct missile or drone strike on Israeli territory within 14 days

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