The United States will announce a new sanction or export control measure targeting Chinese entities linked to PLA military modernization within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 28% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium (China: gray zone escalation, US: economic deterrence, p=100%, fragile stability, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) plus a recently confirmed precedent (FCC/Xinjiang export restrictions in August) suggests continuation of the US economic deterrence track.

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC+ will announce a production quota increase at its December 2026 ministerial meeting

geopolitical26%

Iran will conduct a confirmed direct missile or drone strike on Israeli territory within 14 days

geopolitical45%EXPIRED

China will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure (developer bailout, mortgage rate cut, or funding facility) within 30 days.

geopolitical28%

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Russia and Ukraine will hold at least one additional publicly confirmed direct negotiation session, prisoner exchange, or ceasefire-related announcement within 14 days.

geopolitical76%HIT

The United States will announce a new sanction or export control measure targeting Chinese entities linked to PLA military modernization within 30 days.

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