OPEC+ will announce a production quota increase at its December 2026 ministerial meeting

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 26% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-01.

OPEC+ Bayesian equilibrium shows a fragile 38% bargaining range (Saudi cuts/US releases SPR), but the most recent confirmed OPEC+ action (August 2026) was a coordinated production HIKE completing rollback of voluntary cuts, indicating continuation of the hike trend into the December ministerial aligned with the Chanukah/OPEC+ convergence signal (intensity 5/5, 2026-12-01).

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 85 days
Deadline: Dec 1in 63d
Made: Sep 7

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will conduct a confirmed direct missile or drone strike on Israeli territory within 14 days

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China will announce a new targeted property-sector stimulus measure (developer bailout, mortgage rate cut, or funding facility) within 30 days.

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Russia and Ukraine will hold at least one additional publicly confirmed direct negotiation session, prisoner exchange, or ceasefire-related announcement within 14 days.

geopolitical76%HIT

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The United States will announce a new sanction or export control measure targeting Chinese entities linked to PLA military modernization within 30 days.

geopolitical28%

OPEC+ will announce a production quota increase at its December 2026 ministerial meeting

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