The US Treasury or OFAC will announce a new sanctions designation specifically targeting Iranian oil export networks or shadow-fleet shipping entities within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 27% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-27.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conflict likely) combined with confirmed Hormuz harassment/mine incidents increases probability of a fresh US sanctions escalation targeting Iranian oil intermediaries distinct from the existing Russia-oil sanctions track.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 272d ago
Made: Sep 13

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US Department of Justice or Federal Trade Commission will announce a new formal antitrust enforcement action, lawsuit filing, or major settlement against a major US technology company within 30 days.

geopolitical24%

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense or a wire-tier outlet will report a new PLA naval vessel incursion into Taiwan's contiguous zone (distinct from routine ADIZ air incursions) within 14 days.

geopolitical57%

Iran will publicly reject or suspend participation in the US-Oman diplomatic framework to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical59%

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The US Treasury or OFAC will announce a new sanctions designation specifically targeting Iranian oil export networks or shadow-fleet shipping entities within 14 days.

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