Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense or a wire-tier outlet will report a new PLA naval vessel incursion into Taiwan's contiguous zone (distinct from routine ADIZ air incursions) within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 57% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-27.

Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis equilibrium (China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence, p=100%, coalition stability 30%, fracture risk critical, bargaining range 25% narrow) and 53% escalation probability, indicating continued gray-zone pressure beyond air-domain incursions already tracked.

Probability: 57%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 272d ago
Made: Sep 13

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's government or the PBOC will announce a new targeted property-sector bailout measure (developer debt relief, funding facility, or homebuyer support program) within 30 days.

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Russia and the United States will hold or announce direct high-level negotiations on a Ukraine settlement framework within 30 days.

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The US Treasury or OFAC will announce a new sanctions designation specifically targeting Iranian oil export networks or shadow-fleet shipping entities within 14 days.

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The US Department of Justice or Federal Trade Commission will announce a new formal antitrust enforcement action, lawsuit filing, or major settlement against a major US technology company within 30 days.

geopolitical24%

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense or a wire-tier outlet will report a new PLA naval vessel incursion into Taiwan's contiguous zone (distinct from routine ADIZ air incursions) within 14 days.

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