Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense or a wire-tier outlet will report a new PLA naval vessel incursion into Taiwan's contiguous zone (distinct from routine ADIZ air incursions) within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 57% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-10-05.

Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis equilibrium (China: Gray zone escalation, US: Economic deterrence, p=100%, coalition stability 30%, fracture risk critical, bargaining range 25% narrow) and 53% escalation probability, indicating continued gray-zone pressure beyond air-domain incursions already tracked.

Probability: 57%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2716d ago
Made: Sep 13

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense or a wire-tier outlet will report a new PLA naval vessel incursion into Taiwan's contiguous zone (distinct from routine ADIZ air incursions) within 14 days.

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