Russia and the United States will hold or announce direct high-level negotiations on a Ukraine settlement framework within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 32% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-13.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine Endgame shows a stable equilibrium ('Russia negotiate from strength; US push negotiated settlement', 91% equilibrium probability, 78% confidence) with a sufficient 50% Fearon bargaining range, supporting engagement short of a full ceasefire (which is a distinct, higher-bar pending claim).

Probability: 32%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 13in 14d
Made: Sep 13

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's government or the PBOC will announce a new targeted property-sector bailout measure (developer debt relief, funding facility, or homebuyer support program) within 30 days.

geopolitical29%

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense or a wire-tier outlet will report a new PLA naval vessel incursion into Taiwan's contiguous zone (distinct from routine ADIZ air incursions) within 14 days.

geopolitical57%

The US Treasury or OFAC will announce a new sanctions designation specifically targeting Iranian oil export networks or shadow-fleet shipping entities within 14 days.

geopolitical27%

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Russia and the United States will hold or announce direct high-level negotiations on a Ukraine settlement framework within 30 days.

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