China's government or the PBOC will announce a new targeted property-sector bailout measure (developer debt relief, funding facility, or homebuyer support program) within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 29% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-13.
Bayesian China Property/Stimulus Dilemma equilibrium: 'China chooses Targeted property bailout' at 70% Nash confidence with mixed market impact; moderated by the policy_action/geopolitical reference class hit rate of ~20%.
- Probability
- 29%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 13in 14d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.