MISSBrier 0.013

Web search for 'Israel shipping lane port closure restriction announcement March 20-27 2026' returned 0 results within the evidence window (2026-03-20 to 2026-03-27). No announcements by Israel of shipping lane closures or port facility restrictions were found during the prediction period. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: at least 1 announcement, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 27, 2026

Geopolitical

N/A

Israel will announce closure or restriction of at least one major shipping lane or port facility within 7 days as escalation probability of 53% in Taiwan Strait Crisis and 20% in Iran Nuclear scenario create defensive positioning

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 11% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-27. Brier score 0.013.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Iran Nuclear Breakout has Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) with 20% escalation probability. Knowledge bank shows Haifa Oil Refinery already hit by Iranian missile, indicating active conflict phase. Base rate for military operations during active conflict supports defensive infrastructure measures.

Probability: 11%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 27186d ago
Made: Mar 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

European banking sector (STOXX Europe 600 Banks) will announce at least 2 emergency liquidity measures or capital preservation actions within 14 days as Iran conflict escalation and energy security concerns create financial stability pressures

geopolitical45%MISS

Pakistan will impose emergency foreign exchange controls or currency intervention measures within 14 days as Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence (April 14) coincides with regional military tensions and balance of payments pressure

geopolitical39%MISS

Energy sector volatility will exceed technology sector volatility (measured by respective sector VIX equivalents) on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as wartime energy disruptions create sector rotation pressure

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Israel will announce closure or restriction of at least one major shipping lane or port facility within 7 days as escalation probability of 53% in Taiwan Strait Crisis and 20% in Iran Nuclear scenario create defensive positioning

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