MISSBrier 0.518

EURJPY current price on April 7, 2026: 184.305. Historical data shows EURJPY traded consistently above 182 throughout the prediction window from March 8 to April 7, 2026. All daily closes ranged from 182.4579 (March 16) to 184.341 (March 25), with no trading days below 158. Counted trading days below 158: 0 days. Actual: 0 days below 158, Required: at least 3 days below 158, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met. The yen weakened against the euro contrary to prediction.

Resolved Apr 7, 2026

Market

The Japanese yen (JPY) will strengthen against the euro, with EURJPY trading below 158 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days, as dual risk-off pressures from Taiwan gray-zone escalation and Iran nuclear instability drive safe-haven demand for yen while ECB fragmentation concerns weigh on the euro

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-07. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: Game theory Taiwan Strait gray-zone Nash equilibrium (70% confidence) creating sustained risk premium, Iran zero-Nash-equilibria instability, ECB fragmentation vulnerability (knowledge bank: ECB reaction function - BTP-Bund spread risk), and BOJ reaction function showing yen strengthening tendency during geopolitical risk-off episodes

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 7175d ago
Made: Mar 8

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The CBOE Skew Index (SKEW) will trade above 155 on at least 5 trading days within 14 days as options market tail-risk hedging intensifies ahead of the intensity-5 Erev Pesach convergence on March 31

market75%PARTIAL

India's Nifty 50 index will outperform the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) by at least 3% on a relative basis during the 30-day period ending April 7, 2026, as Taiwan gray-zone escalation penalizes China-exposed indices while India benefits from supply chain redirection and relative geopolitical insulation

market75%MISS

The MOVE Index (ICE BofA Treasury volatility) will trade above 130 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as the wartime regime with Hormuz closure creates sharp repricing in Treasury markets from competing flight-to-quality demand and inflation expectations from oil supply shock

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