MISSBrier 0.563

Nifty 50: March 9 close 24,028.05 → April 7 close 22,929.65. Return = (22,929.65-24,028.05)/24,028.05 = -4.6%. Shanghai Composite: March 9 close 4,096.60 → April 7 close 3,883.48. Return = (3,883.48-4,096.60)/4,096.60 = -5.2%. Relative performance = Nifty return - Shanghai return = -4.6% - (-5.2%) = +0.6%. Actual: 0.6%, Required: 3.0%, 0.6% < 3.0% therefore threshold NOT met. India underperformed despite both markets declining.

Resolved Apr 7, 2026

Market

India's Nifty 50 index will outperform the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) by at least 3% on a relative basis during the 30-day period ending April 7, 2026, as Taiwan gray-zone escalation penalizes China-exposed indices while India benefits from supply chain redirection and relative geopolitical insulation

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 75% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-07. Brier score 0.563.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait gray-zone Nash equilibrium outcome creating sustained China risk premium, demographic analysis showing India's favorable working-age population trajectory vs China's decline, critical trade flow dependencies indicating India as alternative manufacturing destination, and Thucydides Trap framework increasing structural discount on China-exposed assets

Probability: 75%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 7175d ago
Made: Mar 8

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The CBOE Skew Index (SKEW) will trade above 155 on at least 5 trading days within 14 days as options market tail-risk hedging intensifies ahead of the intensity-5 Erev Pesach convergence on March 31

market75%PARTIAL

The Japanese yen (JPY) will strengthen against the euro, with EURJPY trading below 158 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days, as dual risk-off pressures from Taiwan gray-zone escalation and Iran nuclear instability drive safe-haven demand for yen while ECB fragmentation concerns weigh on the euro

market72%MISS

The MOVE Index (ICE BofA Treasury volatility) will trade above 130 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as the wartime regime with Hormuz closure creates sharp repricing in Treasury markets from competing flight-to-quality demand and inflation expectations from oil supply shock

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