PARTIALBrier 0.563

SKEW Index showed elevated tail-risk hedging but did not reach 155 threshold on required days. Created March 8, 2026, window March 8-22. SKEW history shows: March 9: 157.98 (above 155 - Day 1), March 10: 154.46 (below), March 11: 152.44 (below), subsequent days all below 155 with current at 139.12. Only 1 day above 155 vs required 5+ days. However, direction was correct - SKEW did spike initially due to tail-risk hedging as predicted, reaching 157.98 on March 9.

Resolved Mar 22, 2026

Market

The CBOE Skew Index (SKEW) will trade above 155 on at least 5 trading days within 14 days as options market tail-risk hedging intensifies ahead of the intensity-5 Erev Pesach convergence on March 31

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 75% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-22. Brier score 0.563.

Derived from: Options market microstructure framework (gamma exposure and dealer hedging dynamics), the approaching intensity-5/5 Erev Pesach convergence with 9 concurrent events on March 31, the 30-point gap between Fear/Greed sentiment (50) and geopolitical escalation risk (80%), and the regime transition creating demand for out-of-the-money put protection that elevates skew

Probability: 75%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 22191d ago
Made: Mar 8

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The Japanese yen (JPY) will strengthen against the euro, with EURJPY trading below 158 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days, as dual risk-off pressures from Taiwan gray-zone escalation and Iran nuclear instability drive safe-haven demand for yen while ECB fragmentation concerns weigh on the euro

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The CBOE Skew Index (SKEW) will trade above 155 on at least 5 trading days within 14 days as options market tail-risk hedging intensifies ahead of the intensity-5 Erev Pesach convergence on March 31

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