Iran will be confirmed by the IAEA or announce enrichment activity that breaches a new escalatory threshold (e.g., stockpile expansion or new enrichment site disclosure) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 44% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-19.

Fearon bargaining failure on Iran Nuclear Breakout (0% bargaining range) indicates structural conditions favor conflict per Fearon 1995; IRGC actor intelligence shows active escalation mode following loss of senior naval leadership, though base rate for policy_action/geopolitical predictions is only 20%.

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 19in 20d
Made: Sep 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next FOMC meeting without accompanying dovish forward guidance within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

China will conduct a large-scale, multi-day military exercise (Joint Sword-type) encircling or partially encircling Taiwan within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

India will conduct a new cross-border military strike or significant escalation against Pakistan-based targets in the Kashmir region within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

The US Navy will conduct a new publicly reported convoy escort or naval defense operation against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

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Track Record

Geopolitical

LONGPending

Iran will be confirmed by the IAEA or announce enrichment activity that breaches a new escalatory threshold (e.g., stockpile expansion or new enrichment site disclosure) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 44% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-19.

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 19in 20d
Made: Sep 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next FOMC meeting without accompanying dovish forward guidance within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

China will conduct a large-scale, multi-day military exercise (Joint Sword-type) encircling or partially encircling Taiwan within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

India will conduct a new cross-border military strike or significant escalation against Pakistan-based targets in the Kashmir region within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

The US Navy will conduct a new publicly reported convoy escort or naval defense operation against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Iran will be confirmed by the IAEA or announce enrichment activity that breaches a new escalatory threshold (e.g., stockpile expansion or new enrichment site disclosure) within 30 days.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture

Iran will be confirmed by the IAEA or announce enrichment activity that breaches a new escalatory threshold (e.g., stockpile expansion or new enrichment site disclosure) within 30 days.

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture