The Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next FOMC meeting without accompanying dovish forward guidance within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-19.

Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot analysis: most likely outcome is 'fed chooses Hawkish hold + guidance; markets chooses Volatility hedging' (bearish, confidence 55%) with zero stable equilibria found, indicating no clear pivot toward dovish signaling is structurally supported.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 19in 20d
Made: Sep 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will be confirmed by the IAEA or announce enrichment activity that breaches a new escalatory threshold (e.g., stockpile expansion or new enrichment site disclosure) within 30 days.

geopolitical44%

India will conduct a new cross-border military strike or significant escalation against Pakistan-based targets in the Kashmir region within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

The US Navy will conduct a new publicly reported convoy escort or naval defense operation against Houthi attacks in the Red Sea within 30 days.

geopolitical85%

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The Federal Reserve will hold its policy rate unchanged at its next FOMC meeting without accompanying dovish forward guidance within 30 days.

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