China will conduct a large-scale, multi-day military exercise (Joint Sword-type) encircling or partially encircling Taiwan within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-19.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis analysis: dominant equilibrium is China gray-zone escalation vs US economic deterrence (fragile stability, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk), with 53% escalation probability and a narrow 25% Fearon bargaining range signaling elevated but not certain near-term kinetic-adjacent action.

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 19in 20d
Made: Sep 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China will conduct a large-scale, multi-day military exercise (Joint Sword-type) encircling or partially encircling Taiwan within 30 days.

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