China will conduct a PLA aircraft incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ exceeding 20 sorties in a single day within 14 days, consistent with the dominant Bayesian equilibrium of sustained gray-zone escalation.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-03.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis: China Gray zone escalation / US Economic deterrence equilibrium at p=100% (fragile stability, coalition stability 30%, fracture risk critical, narrow 25% bargaining range)

Probability: 85%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 3in 4d
Made: Sep 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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China will conduct a PLA aircraft incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ exceeding 20 sorties in a single day within 14 days, consistent with the dominant Bayesian equilibrium of sustained gray-zone escalation.

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