New People (NL) will gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 12% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-30.

Crowd prices NL at 23% YES, which appears to overstate a minor party's chances against United Russia's dominant party machine; Kremlin actor intelligence shows no signal of a deliberate transfer of parliamentary plurality away from ER.

Probability: 12%
Timeframe: 11 days
Deadline: Sep 30in 1d
Made: Sep 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will conduct a confirmed naval harassment incident (vessel seizure, GPS jamming, or armed confrontation) in or near the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

China will conduct a PLA aircraft incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ exceeding 20 sorties in a single day within 14 days, consistent with the dominant Bayesian equilibrium of sustained gray-zone escalation.

geopolitical85%

United Russia (ER) will be confirmed as gaining the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election, resolving the Polymarket market YES, with probability exceeding the current 76% crowd price given sustained Kremlin consolidation of political control.

geopolitical51%

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New People (NL) will gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election.

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