India will conduct a new cross-border military strike or significant escalation against Pakistan-based targets in the Kashmir region within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-19 at 85% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-19.
Game theory analysis flags India-Pakistan Kashmir Escalation with a mixed equilibrium of 'US surgical strikes; China accepts mediation' — a fresh flashpoint distinct from Taiwan/Iran/Russia topics already saturating the pending prediction set, anchored to policy_action/geopolitical base rate near 20-30%.
- Probability
- 85%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 19in 20d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.