MISSBrier 0.518

Bitcoin price data from March 8-April 7, 2026 shows highest close was $74,861.09 on March 16. Maximum intraday high was $75,988.40 on March 17. Bitcoin never approached $100,000 during the prediction window, trading primarily in $65,000-$75,000 range. Count of days above $100,000: 0 days. Actual: 0 days, Required: 3 days, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 7, 2026

Market

Bitcoin (BTC) will trade above $100,000 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as the zero-Nash-equilibrium Iran nuclear game and Hormuz closure risk drive demand for non-sovereign, non-SWIFT settlement assets consistent with the XRP/alternative settlement thesis

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 72% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-07. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: Knowledge bank XRP thesis identifies demand for post-SWIFT settlement infrastructure; Iran nuclear game has zero Nash equilibria meaning instability is persistent; Hormuz closure since March 2 per knowledge bank disrupts traditional financial flows; cross-asset correlation framework notes crypto increasingly trades as geopolitical hedge in wartime regimes

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 7175d ago
Made: Mar 8

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Bitcoin (BTC) will trade above $100,000 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as the zero-Nash-equilibrium Iran nuclear game and Hormuz closure risk drive demand for non-sovereign, non-SWIFT settlement assets consistent with the XRP/alternative settlement thesis

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