PARTIALBrier 0.563

From copper futures data: March 9 close (first trading day after creation) was $5.80. March 7 close would have been similar. April 7 close was $5.62. Decline = (5.80-5.62)/5.80 = 3.1%. Direction correct (copper did decline), but magnitude insufficient. Actual: 3.1%, Required: 4.0%, 3.1% < 4.0% therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 7, 2026

Market

Copper futures (HG) will decline more than 4% from their March 7 close within 30 days as Taiwan gray-zone escalation (the Nash equilibrium outcome at 70% confidence) and risk-off regime transition suppress industrial demand expectations and trade flow confidence

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-08 at 75% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-07. Brier score 0.563.

Derived from: Game theory Taiwan Strait analysis projects gray-zone escalation as equilibrium outcome; critical mineral supply chain knowledge bank notes China controls 65% of copper processing; transitional regime with 80% escalation risk weighs on cyclical commodities; copper is a direct proxy for China-exposed industrial trade

Probability: 75%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 7175d ago
Made: Mar 8

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Copper futures (HG) will decline more than 4% from their March 7 close within 30 days as Taiwan gray-zone escalation (the Nash equilibrium outcome at 70% confidence) and risk-off regime transition suppress industrial demand expectations and trade flow confidence

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