Iran will announce a formal withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or equivalent enrichment escalation declaration.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 15% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Bayesian Iran Nuclear Breakout analysis shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range), explicitly stating structural conditions favor conflict/escalation with no stable equilibrium. This distinct policy-escalation event has not been captured in existing pending predictions focused on kinetic strikes.

Probability: 15%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's PLA will conduct a large-scale multi-day encirclement military exercise around Taiwan involving both naval and air assets.

geopolitical56%

Russia will conduct a confirmed missile or drone strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

geopolitical80%EXPIRED

Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy force will conduct a confirmed attack on Israeli or US-linked assets timed to the October 7 anniversary window (October 1-14, 2026).

geopolitical69%

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The Federal Reserve will announce no change in interest rates following its September 2026 meeting.

geopolitical48%EXPIRED

Iran will announce a formal withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or equivalent enrichment escalation declaration.

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