Russia will conduct a confirmed missile or drone strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 80% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-29.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame shows 36% escalation probability even within a bullish negotiation-favorable equilibrium (50% bargaining range); historical pattern of resolved predictions confirms continued military activity alongside diplomatic contacts, consistent with reference-class binary_event/geopolitical hit rate of 55%.

Probability: 80%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's PLA will conduct a large-scale multi-day encirclement military exercise around Taiwan involving both naval and air assets.

geopolitical56%

Iran will announce a formal withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or equivalent enrichment escalation declaration.

geopolitical15%

Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy force will conduct a confirmed attack on Israeli or US-linked assets timed to the October 7 anniversary window (October 1-14, 2026).

geopolitical69%

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Russia will conduct a confirmed missile or drone strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

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