Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy force will conduct a confirmed attack on Israeli or US-linked assets timed to the October 7 anniversary window (October 1-14, 2026).

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 69% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Derived from: active signal 'Rosh Chodesh Cheshvan + October 7 Anniversary' (intensity 2/5, audience-cost implications noted in thesis) combined with Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conflict conditions) and confirmed pattern of Hormuz/regional harassment incidents through August 2026.

Probability: 69%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will announce no change in interest rates following its September 2026 meeting.

geopolitical48%EXPIRED

The United States will announce a new sanction or export control measure targeting Chinese entities linked to PLA military modernization within 30 days.

geopolitical28%

Iran will announce a formal withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or equivalent enrichment escalation declaration.

geopolitical15%

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China's PLA will conduct a large-scale multi-day encirclement military exercise around Taiwan involving both naval and air assets.

geopolitical56%

Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy force will conduct a confirmed attack on Israeli or US-linked assets timed to the October 7 anniversary window (October 1-14, 2026).

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