The Federal Reserve will announce no change in interest rates following its September 2026 meeting.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 48% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Derived from: Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot equilibrium ('fed chooses Hawkish hold + guidance', bearish, 55% confidence) and prior confirmed hawkish-hold outcome at the July FOMC meeting (3 dissents favoring a hike). Diverges from Polymarket crowd pricing (question 2252244, currently YES 50%).

Probability: 48%
Timeframe: 9 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy force will conduct a confirmed attack on Israeli or US-linked assets timed to the October 7 anniversary window (October 1-14, 2026).

geopolitical69%

The United States will announce a new sanction or export control measure targeting Chinese entities linked to PLA military modernization within 30 days.

geopolitical28%

Iran will announce a formal withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or equivalent enrichment escalation declaration.

geopolitical15%

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The Federal Reserve will announce no change in interest rates following its September 2026 meeting.

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