China's PLA will conduct a large-scale multi-day encirclement military exercise around Taiwan involving both naval and air assets.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 56% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis shows narrow 25% bargaining range with China-US coalition stability at only 30% and critical fracture risk, dominant equilibrium being gray zone escalation (100% probability, fragile stability). The upcoming Rosh Hashana/UNGA convergence window (2026-09-10) adds calendar-based escalation risk.

Probability: 56%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia will conduct a confirmed missile or drone strike on Ukrainian energy infrastructure.

geopolitical80%EXPIRED

Iran will announce a formal withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) or equivalent enrichment escalation declaration.

geopolitical15%

Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy force will conduct a confirmed attack on Israeli or US-linked assets timed to the October 7 anniversary window (October 1-14, 2026).

geopolitical69%

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The Federal Reserve will announce no change in interest rates following its September 2026 meeting.

geopolitical48%EXPIRED

China's PLA will conduct a large-scale multi-day encirclement military exercise around Taiwan involving both naval and air assets.

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