Deutsche Bank (DB) will close below $16.50 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as European banking stress from potential Iran sanctions escalation creates sector-wide pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-23. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: 80% geopolitical escalation risk + European Energy Security game theory scenario + banking sector vulnerability to sanctions regimes

Probability

72%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Mar 23190d ago

Made

Mar 9

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.