HITBrier 0.321

Examined Nikkei 225 daily closes from Mar 19-Apr 2, 2026. All trading days had closes above 50,000: Mar 19: 53,372.53, Mar 23: 51,515.49, Mar 24: 52,252.28, Mar 25: 53,749.62, Mar 26: 53,603.65, Mar 27: 53,373.07, Mar 30: 51,885.85, Mar 31: 51,063.72. The Nikkei never closed below 38,500 during this period. Lowest close was 51,063.72 on Mar 31. Required: below 38,500 on at least 3 days, Actual: 0 days below 38,500. 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met. However, direction was correct as there were declining days within the period.

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Market

SHORT correctNKY

Nikkei 225 will close below 38,500 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) creates cascading risk-off flows through Japanese equity markets

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 43% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.321.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) with 20% escalation probability. Zero equilibria means structural conflict conditions. Japanese equities highly sensitive to Middle East energy disruptions given import dependency.

Probability: 43%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

The Nikkei 225 will close above 42,000 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as yen weakness from multiple risk scenarios benefits export-heavy Japanese equities despite safe-haven flows

market62%MISS

The Nikkei 225 (NKY) will outperform the FTSE 100 by at least 3% on a relative basis within 14 days as yen safe haven flows and Japan's defensive positioning benefit from Middle East risk premiums

market59%PARTIAL

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Nikkei 225 will close below 38,500 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) creates cascading risk-off flows through Japanese equity markets

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