PARTIALBrier 0.354

From March 11 to March 25, 2026: Nikkei 225 declined from 55,025.37 to 53,616.45 (-2.56%). FTSE 100 declined from 10,353.80 to 9,965.16 (-3.75%). Relative performance: -2.56% - (-3.75%) = +1.19%. Actual: 1.19%, Required: 3.0%, 1.19 < 3.0 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction was correct (Nikkei did outperform FTSE) but magnitude was insufficient.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Market

LONG correctNKY

The Nikkei 225 (NKY) will outperform the FTSE 100 by at least 3% on a relative basis within 14 days as yen safe haven flows and Japan's defensive positioning benefit from Middle East risk premiums

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 59% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.354.

Derived from: Multiple game theory scenarios with elevated escalation probabilities (Iran 20%, Taiwan 53%) driving safe haven demand. Japan's energy import dependency paradoxically creates defensive equity outperformance as yen weakness supports exporters while geopolitical positioning remains neutral. Base rate for major index relative moves: ~40% adjusted upward for geopolitical backdrop.

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 11

Price Target$100

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Nikkei 225 will close above 42,000 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as yen weakness from multiple risk scenarios benefits export-heavy Japanese equities despite safe-haven flows

market62%MISS

Nikkei 225 will close below 38,500 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) creates cascading risk-off flows through Japanese equity markets

market43%HIT

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The Nikkei 225 (NKY) will outperform the FTSE 100 by at least 3% on a relative basis within 14 days as yen safe haven flows and Japan's defensive positioning benefit from Middle East risk premiums

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