Nikkei 225 data shows it never closed above 42,000 during the evidence window (2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10). Highest close was 56,924 on 2026-04-10, but prediction required closing above 42,000. However, checking the data more carefully, the Nikkei was consistently ABOVE 42,000 throughout the period. Daily closes ranged from 51,063 (lowest on 2026-03-31) to 56,924 (highest on 2026-04-10). Every single trading day from 2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10 had closes above 42,000. Actual: All 22 trading days above 42,000, Required: at least 2 days, therefore threshold MET.
Resolved Apr 12, 2026
Market
LONG wrongNKY
The Nikkei 225 will close above 42,000 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as yen weakness from multiple risk scenarios benefits export-heavy Japanese equities despite safe-haven flows
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 62% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-12. Brier score 0.381.
Derived from: Multiple Bayesian scenarios with high escalation probabilities (Taiwan: 53%, Hormuz: 67%) create yen weakness while Japanese export competitiveness improves. BOJ policy constraints limit yen strength. Compound probability: P(yen weakness continues) * P(Nikkei benefits) = 0.82 * 0.90 = 0.74
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peacetime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.