Israel or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct a new direct military strike on the other's nuclear or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 52% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-06.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian assessment shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range), explicitly flagged as structurally favoring conflict; prior confirmed Hormuz mine/seizure incidents and IRGC audience-cost constraints (naval leadership losses) sustain elevated but not certain direct-strike risk, tempered by the prior denied Israel-Iran direct-strike prediction in the last window.

Probability: 52%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 6in 7d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China's PLA will conduct a large-scale incursion (20+ aircraft or equivalent naval surge) near Taiwan during the UN General Assembly / Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window.

geopolitical63%EXPIRED

OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (not a cut) for its next monthly allocation within 30 days.

geopolitical28%

Russia and Ukraine will hold at least one additional publicly confirmed direct negotiation session, prisoner exchange, or ceasefire-related announcement within 30 days.

geopolitical77%

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OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (rather than a cut) at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

Israel or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct a new direct military strike on the other's nuclear or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

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