OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (rather than a cut) at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 26% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-06.

Bayesian OPEC+ Production Decision shows fragile 38% bargaining range around 'Saudi cuts, US releases SPR,' but the recent confirmed pattern (Reuters: OPEC+ agreed September production hike, rollback of voluntary cuts) suggests continuation of the increase trajectory over a reversal to cuts.

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 6in 7d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.

geopolitical5%EXPIRED

The European Union will announce a new sanctions package or export restriction targeting Russian energy exports within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

The Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no cut, no hike) at its September 2026 meeting, consistent with the Bayesian 'hawkish hold + guidance' equilibrium.

geopolitical50%EXPIRED

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The United States will announce an end to the Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by September 14, 2026.

geopolitical5%EXPIRED

OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (rather than a cut) at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

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