The Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no cut, no hike) at its September 2026 meeting, consistent with the Bayesian 'hawkish hold + guidance' equilibrium.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 50% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-24.

Bayesian Fed Rate Cycle Pivot equilibrium: 'fed chooses Hawkish hold + guidance' (confidence 55%, bearish). Differs from crowd market YES 50% on 'no change' and 51% on '25bps increase' by weighting the Bayesian equilibrium more heavily than the crowd split.

Probability: 50%
Timeframe: 10 days
Deadline: Sep 1613d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The European Union will announce a new sanctions package or export restriction targeting Russian energy exports within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

The Federal Reserve will decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting.

geopolitical5%EXPIRED

OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (rather than a cut) at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

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The Federal Reserve will hold interest rates unchanged (no cut, no hike) at its September 2026 meeting, consistent with the Bayesian 'hawkish hold + guidance' equilibrium.

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