China's PLA will conduct a large-scale incursion (20+ aircraft or equivalent naval surge) near Taiwan during the UN General Assembly / Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 63% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-21.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium: China 'Gray zone escalation' vs US 'Economic deterrence' at p=100% but fragile (25% bargaining range, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk); the active signal calendar flags UNGA + Erev Rosh Hashana as a defense/diplomacy convergence window historically associated with gray-zone activity spikes.

Probability: 63%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Sep 1316d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Israel or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct a new direct military strike on the other's nuclear or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

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OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (not a cut) for its next monthly allocation within 30 days.

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Russia and Ukraine will hold at least one additional publicly confirmed direct negotiation session, prisoner exchange, or ceasefire-related announcement within 30 days.

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China's PLA will conduct a large-scale incursion (20+ aircraft or equivalent naval surge) near Taiwan during the UN General Assembly / Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window.

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