China's PLA will conduct a large-scale incursion (20+ aircraft or equivalent naval surge) near Taiwan during the UN General Assembly / Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 63% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-21.
Bayesian Taiwan Strait equilibrium: China 'Gray zone escalation' vs US 'Economic deterrence' at p=100% but fragile (25% bargaining range, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk); the active signal calendar flags UNGA + Erev Rosh Hashana as a defense/diplomacy convergence window historically associated with gray-zone activity spikes.
- Probability
- 63%
- Timeframe
- 7 days
- Deadline
- Sep 1316d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.