Russia and Ukraine will hold at least one additional publicly confirmed direct negotiation session, prisoner exchange, or ceasefire-related announcement within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 77% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-06.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame shows 50% sufficient bargaining range, most likely equilibrium 'negotiate from strength / push negotiated settlement' at 91% probability, bullish market impact, 78% confidence — the strongest stable equilibrium of any tracked conflict, consistent with the repeated pattern of prisoner exchanges already confirmed in prior windows.

Probability

77%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Oct 6in 7d

Made

Sep 6

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.