Russia and Ukraine will hold at least one additional publicly confirmed direct negotiation session, prisoner exchange, or ceasefire-related announcement within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 77% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-10-14.

Bayesian Russia-Ukraine War Endgame shows 50% sufficient bargaining range, most likely equilibrium 'negotiate from strength / push negotiated settlement' at 91% probability, bullish market impact, 78% confidence — the strongest stable equilibrium of any tracked conflict, consistent with the repeated pattern of prisoner exchanges already confirmed in prior windows.

Probability: 77%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 68d ago
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (not a cut) for its next monthly allocation within 30 days.

geopolitical28%MISS

Israel or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct a new direct military strike on the other's nuclear or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

geopolitical52%EXPIRED

China's PLA will conduct a large-scale incursion (20+ aircraft or equivalent naval surge) near Taiwan during the UN General Assembly / Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window.

geopolitical63%EXPIRED

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Russia and Ukraine will hold at least one additional publicly confirmed direct negotiation session, prisoner exchange, or ceasefire-related announcement within 30 days.

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