OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (not a cut) for its next monthly allocation within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 28% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-06.

OPEC+ Bayesian equilibrium (Saudi cuts, US releases SPR, 38% fragile bargaining range) has repeatedly failed to materialize as a cut in prior resolved windows; actual pattern confirmed OPEC+ approving hikes (Reuters, Sept rollback of cuts). Base rate for policy_action/geopolitical is 20%, adjusted upward given the consistent historical pattern of increases over cuts.

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 6in 7d
Made: Sep 6

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia and Ukraine will hold at least one additional publicly confirmed direct negotiation session, prisoner exchange, or ceasefire-related announcement within 30 days.

geopolitical77%

Israel or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct a new direct military strike on the other's nuclear or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

geopolitical52%

China's PLA will conduct a large-scale incursion (20+ aircraft or equivalent naval surge) near Taiwan during the UN General Assembly / Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window.

geopolitical63%EXPIRED

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OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (rather than a cut) at its next ministerial-level communication within 30 days.

geopolitical26%

OPEC+ will announce a further coordinated production increase (not a cut) for its next monthly allocation within 30 days.

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