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Israel, Gaza and Lebanon conflict: live tracker and timeline | NEXUS Intelligence

Live tracker·Middle East·Updated Tuesday, 29 September 2026, 09:59 UTC

Israel, Gaza and Lebanon conflict

The conflict involving Israel, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon: strikes, hostages, ceasefire negotiations and regional escalation.

Illustrative image

State of play

Reports on September 29 said Israeli forces killed Hamas commander Izz al-Din al-Beik in Gaza, while satellite images showed widespread destruction there. In the occupied West Bank, settlers attacked Jalud and torched homes; Israeli strikes also continued in southern Lebanon despite a ceasefire. Polymarket put the chance that an Israel-Iran ceasefire would continue through October 31 at 84%. NEXUS forecasts an 85% chance of a Hezbollah attack within 14 days and an 85% chance of an Israeli strike against Hamas or Hezbollah during the October 7 anniversary window.

Written Tuesday, 29 September 2026 from the timeline

Market odds: 85%Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Open forecasts: 24
NEXUS record: 5/10hits on this story, misses included

Open NEXUS forecasts

53%

Israel and Iran will conduct a direct state-attributed missile or airstrike exchange targeting military or nuclear infrastructure within 21 days.by 2026-10-01

85%A confirmed new cross-border military exchange (strikes, rocket fire, or incursion) between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon will occur within 14 days.by 2026-10-02

85%A confirmed Israel-Hezbollah cross-border strike (rocket fire, drone attack, or airstrike) will occur within 14 days as the October 7 anniversary and Rosh Chodesh Cheshvan convergence window approaches.by 2026-10-05

52%Israel or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct a new direct military strike on the other's nuclear or naval infrastructure within 30 days.by 2026-10-06

51%Israel will conduct a direct military strike on Iranian nuclear-related infrastructure within 30 days.by 2026-10-07

46%Israel will conduct a confirmed direct military strike specifically targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure (not Hezbollah or proxy targets) within 30 days.by 2026-10-07

69%Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy force will conduct a confirmed attack on Israeli or US-linked assets timed to the October 7 anniversary window (October 1-14, 2026).by 2026-10-07

85%Israel will conduct a publicly confirmed military strike against Hamas or Hezbollah targets in Gaza or Lebanon during the October 7 anniversary window (Oct 1-8, 2026).by 2026-10-08

Latest first

Tuesday, 29 September 20268 updates
- 09:59Odds
  OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" at 84%
  Polymarket
  First tracked price for this market.
- 09:00News
  NewsAs the U.S. signals a smaller Middle East footprint, Turkey is ready to step in
  NPR
  Turkey's bid for regional influence comes at a time when the Middle East has been hit by profound shocks that started with the Hamas-led 2023 attack on Israel, and continues with the stalemated, seven
- 08:01News
  NewsIsraeli settlers attack Jalud village in occupied West Bank, torch homes
  Al Jazeera
- 07:41News
  NewsSatellite images show Gaza in ruins three years into Israel's genocidal war
  Al Jazeera
- 07:34News
  NewsIsraeli forces kill Hamas commander Izz al-Din al-Beik in Gaza attack
  Al Jazeera
- 00:39News
  NewsNetanyahu Visits Emirati Leader After Reports on Warning About Hamas Attack
  New York Times
  Official statements said bilateral relations were discussed. But the question of who bears responsibility for failing to prevent the Oct. 7 attack is a major election issue in Israel.
- 00:15Resolved
  ResolvedIran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a confirmed attack or seizure incident targeting a non-Israeli, non-US Gulf-state oil export facility or tanker within 14 days.
  Resolved as expired (forecast at 70%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
- 00:15Resolved
  ResolvedIran will conduct a confirmed direct missile or drone strike on Israeli territory within 14 days
  Resolved as expired (forecast at 45%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Monday, 28 September 20264 updates
- 16:00News
  NewsPalestine has become electoral issue in UK for first time, says solidarity campaign chief
  The Guardian
  Anger over Israel's war in Gaza is mobilising British voters, according to Aimee Shalan Palestine has become a domestic electoral issue in Britain for the first time, according to the incomin
- 15:22News
  NewsU.K.'s Miliband touts Israel policy 'reset,' says Gaza war critics 'were right' - Haaretz
  haaretz.com
- 14:51
Sunday, 27 September 20269 updates
- 21:21News
  NewsEgypt Warned Netanyahu of Impending Attack on Israel Before Oct. 7 - WSJ
  wsj.com
- 20:57News
  NewsIsraeli strikes continue in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire
  Al Jazeera
- 19:04News
  News
Saturday, 26 September 20263 updates
- 12:17Resolved
  ResolvedIsrael will conduct at least one confirmed airstrike targeting Hezbollah or Iranian-linked military infrastructure in Lebanon within 14 days.
  Resolved as a hit (forecast at 77%). Al Jazeera (wire tier), Sep 7 2026: 'Israeli air attacks kill at least 12 people in southern Lebanon' -- confirms Israeli airstrikes targeting southern Lebanon (Hezbollah stronghold) within the prediction window (2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21). Additional corroboration: france24.com reported (Sep 10 2026
- 12:17Resolved
  ResolvedHezbollah will conduct at least one additional confirmed rocket, drone, or cross-border attack against Israel within 14 days.
  Resolved as a miss (forecast at 76%). [basis: absence] Searched 'Hezbollah rocket attack Israel September 2026', 'Hezbollah fires rockets drone Israel confirmed attack', 'Hezbollah launches rocket Israel border September', 'Hezbollah attack IDF soldier drone strike September 2026 confirmed'. Found only reports of ISRAEL preemptively des
Thursday, 24 September 20262 updates
- 10:33Forecast
  ForecastHezbollah will launch a rocket, drone, or missile attack against Israeli territory or forces within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
- 10:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct a publicly confirmed military strike against Hamas or Hezbollah targets in Gaza or Lebanon during the October 7 anniversary window (Oct 1-8, 2026).
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
Wednesday, 23 September 20262 updates
- 06:34Forecast
  ForecastIsrael and Hamas will publicly announce a new or extended ceasefire arrangement within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-10-23.
- 03:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct or be publicly reported to have conducted a military strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-23.
Monday, 21 September 20262 updates
- 11:33Forecast
  ForecastA confirmed Israel-Hezbollah cross-border strike (rocket fire, drone attack, or airstrike) will occur within 14 days as the October 7 anniversary and Rosh Chodesh Cheshvan convergence window approaches.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-05.
- 06:00Resolved
  ResolvedIsrael and Hamas will not reach a publicly confirmed, formalized ceasefire or hostage-release agreement within 30 days, as Hamas remains strategically trapped between Iranian alliance maintenance, Hezbollah coordination pressures, and disarmament demands per current actor intelligence.
  Resolved as expired (forecast at 49%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Saturday, 19 September 20261 update
- 06:00Resolved
  ResolvedHezbollah or Hezbollah-aligned forces will conduct at least one additional confirmed rocket, drone, or missile attack on Israeli territory within 14 days.
  Resolved as expired (forecast at 46%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Friday, 18 September 20261 update
- 00:33Forecast
  ForecastA confirmed new cross-border military exchange (strikes, rocket fire, or incursion) between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon will occur within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-02.
Wednesday, 16 September 20261 update
- 05:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct a new confirmed airstrike specifically targeting an Iranian nuclear-linked facility within 30 days
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-16.
Tuesday, 15 September 20261 update
- 10:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct a new confirmed airstrike targeting Iranian military infrastructure beyond nuclear-linked facilities within 30 days
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-15.
Monday, 14 September 20262 updates
- 10:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael or the United States will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear-linked facility or asset within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 54% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.
- 04:33Forecast
  ForecastHezbollah will conduct a new confirmed rocket, drone, or cross-border strike against Israeli territory within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-09-28.
Sunday, 13 September 20263 updates
- 06:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct a direct military strike on Iranian soil (excluding Lebanon, Syria, or other proxy territories) within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.
- 04:34Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct a new confirmed military strike or operation in Gaza within 30 days, coinciding with the October 7 third-anniversary convergence window flagged in the active signals calendar.
  NEXUS forecast: 79% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.
- 03:33Forecast
  Forecast
Saturday, 12 September 20262 updates
- 11:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear facility within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 56% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
- 00:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael or Hezbollah/Hamas-aligned forces will conduct a significant military strike or escalation event in the Israel-Lebanon-Gaza theater within the 30-day window surrounding the October 7 anniversary.
  NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
Friday, 11 September 20262 updates
- 16:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike against Iranian nuclear or IRGC-linked infrastructure within 30 days, separate from any US-attributed action.
  NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.
- 07:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike or covert operation against Iranian nuclear facilities or nuclear program personnel within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.
Thursday, 10 September 20265 updates
- 23:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will publicly raise its military alert level, announce a reserve mobilization, or conduct a security operation explicitly linked to the Yom Kippur War anniversary/Autumnal Equinox window (around September 19, 2026) within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.
- 16:34Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct at least one additional confirmed military strike on Iranian-linked (IRGC, Hezbollah, or proxy) targets in Syria or Lebanon within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 73% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.
- 15:33Forecast
Wednesday, 9 September 20263 updates
- 23:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct a significant new military operation in Gaza or against Hamas/Hezbollah-linked targets around the October 7 anniversary window by 2026-10-14.
  NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.
- 01:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct a confirmed airstrike against Iranian-backed militia or IRGC-linked targets inside Syria within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-09-23.
- 00:33Forecast
  Forecast
Tuesday, 8 September 20265 updates
- 23:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct a confirmed airstrike against a Hezbollah target inside Lebanon within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 76% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.
- 20:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael will conduct a confirmed direct military strike on mainland Iranian soil (not proxy/IRGC assets abroad) within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 51% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
- 11:33Forecast
  Forecast
Monday, 7 September 20267 updates
- 22:34Forecast
  ForecastIran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a confirmed attack or seizure incident targeting a non-Israeli, non-US Gulf-state oil export facility or tanker within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.
- 13:33Forecast
  ForecastIran or an Iran-aligned proxy force will conduct a confirmed attack on Israeli or US-linked assets timed to the October 7 anniversary window (October 1-14, 2026).
  NEXUS forecast: 69% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
- 11:35Forecast
  Forecast
Sunday, 6 September 20261 update
- 15:33Forecast
  ForecastIsrael or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct a new direct military strike on the other's nuclear or naval infrastructure within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 52% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
Friday, 28 August 20261 update
- 15:03Forecast
  ForecastHezbollah or Hezbollah-aligned forces will conduct at least one additional confirmed rocket, drone, or missile attack on Israeli territory within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 46% probability, resolves by 2026-09-11.
Friday, 14 August 20261 update
- 06:02Forecast
  ForecastIsrael and Hamas will not reach a publicly confirmed, formalized ceasefire or hostage-release agreement within 30 days, as Hamas remains strategically trapped between Iranian alliance maintenance, Hezbollah coordination pressures, and disarmament demands per current actor intelligence.
  NEXUS forecast: 49% probability, resolves by 2026-09-13.
Thursday, 13 August 20261 update
- 06:02Resolved
  ResolvedIsrael or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct at least one direct military strike on the other's nuclear, military, or naval infrastructure within 30 days.
  Resolved as a miss (forecast at 20%). [basis: absence] Multiple searches (5 differently-phrased queries) covering the full evidence window 2026-07-14 to 2026-08-13 show an active US-Iran war (US airstrikes on Iran, IRGC retaliatory strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Houthi actions) but NO wire/official-tier report of a DIRE
Tuesday, 14 July 20261 update
- 06:02Forecast
  ForecastIsrael or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct at least one direct military strike on the other's nuclear, military, or naval infrastructure within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 20% probability, resolves by 2026-08-13.
Monday, 6 April 20261 update
- 06:08Resolved
  ResolvedAt least 3 major Middle Eastern airlines will announce route suspensions or capacity reductions within 7 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaigns against US and Israeli targets (documented 81 strike waves) escalate insurance costs beyond sustainable operating thresholds
  Resolved as a partial (forecast at 42%). Search within evidence window 2026-03-30 to 2026-04-06 found evidence of airline disruptions due to Middle East conflict. Multiple sources confirm 'Global airlines slash Middle East flights as conflict widens' and specific mentions of Lufthansa and Air France extending Middle East flight suspensions
Saturday, 4 April 20261 update
- 06:05Resolved
  ResolvedIran will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile strike against US or Israeli targets within 7 days as zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations and active conflict momentum drive escalatory responses
  Resolved as a hit (forecast at 33%). Evidence Window March 28-April 4, 2026: Multiple sources confirm Iranian strikes during the window. BBC reports 'US and Israel attack Iran' (Apr 3), suggesting active conflict. Institute for Study of War provides Iran Updates (Apr 1, Apr 2). New York Times reports '12 U.S. Troops Injured in Attack o
Tuesday, 31 March 20262 updates
- 00:05Resolved
  ResolvedTurkey will announce at least one new military deployment or border security measure within 14 days as escalating Iran-Israel tensions threaten regional stability and activate NATO Article 5 readiness protocols
  Resolved as a hit (forecast at 26%). ایران اینترنشنال reported on March 18, 2026: 'NATO to deploy additional Patriot system in southern Turkey - ministry.' This constitutes a military deployment announcement within the 14-day window (March 17-31). Actual: 1 deployment announced, Required: at least 1 deployment, 1 ≥ 1 therefore threshol
- 00:05Resolved
  ResolvedLebanon will announce at least one new border security measure or military deployment within 14 days as Hezbollah escalatory operations and Iran nuclear instability create regional spillover risks
  Resolved as a miss (forecast at 13%). No evidence found of Lebanon announcing new border security measures or military deployments within the evidence window. Search results showed Syrian border tunnel discoveries, US Pentagon troop deployments to Middle East, and Israeli military issues, but no specific Lebanese government announcement
Monday, 30 March 20262 updates
- 15:35Forecast
  ForecastAt least 3 major Middle Eastern airlines will announce route suspensions or capacity reductions within 7 days as Iran's multi-wave missile campaigns against US and Israeli targets (documented 81 strike waves) escalate insurance costs beyond sustainable operating thresholds
  NEXUS forecast: 42% probability, resolves by 2026-04-06.
- 04:03Resolved
  ResolvedLebanon's currency (USD/LBP) will weaken above 90,000 Lebanese pounds per dollar on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Hezbollah's active military operations against Israel escalate financial system stress and capital flight
  Resolved as a hit (forecast at 48%). USD/LBP exceeded 90,000 on 8 trading days within the evidence window (2026-03-16 to 2026-03-30): March 11 (90,009.32), March 12 (90,438.76 high), March 13 (90,619.27 high), March 14 (90,102.67 high, 90,007.77 close), March 15 (90,130.29 high), March 16 (90,465.65 high), March 17 (90,334.25 high), Ma
Saturday, 28 March 20261 update
- 08:04Forecast
  ForecastIran will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile strike against US or Israeli targets within 7 days as zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations and active conflict momentum drive escalatory responses
  NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-04-04.
Wednesday, 25 March 20261 update
- 00:05Resolved
  ResolvedHezbollah will conduct at least 3 rocket attacks on Israeli territory within 7 days as actor intelligence shows sustained offensive operations with explicit commitment to prolonged conflict
  Resolved as a miss (forecast at 10%). Web search for Hezbollah rocket attacks during March 18-25, 2026 evidence window found 2 results: one about Netanyahu statements saying 'Hezbollah is no longer what it was' and another about Israeli tank fire on UN positions. No specific evidence of Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israeli territory duri
Wednesday, 18 March 20261 update
- 20:03Forecast
  ForecastHezbollah will conduct at least 3 rocket attacks on Israeli territory within 7 days as actor intelligence shows sustained offensive operations with explicit commitment to prolonged conflict
  NEXUS forecast: 10% probability, resolves by 2026-03-25.
Tuesday, 17 March 20262 updates
- 16:03Forecast
  ForecastTurkey will announce at least one new military deployment or border security measure within 14 days as escalating Iran-Israel tensions threaten regional stability and activate NATO Article 5 readiness protocols
  NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-03-31.
- 01:05Forecast
  ForecastLebanon will announce at least one new border security measure or military deployment within 14 days as Hezbollah escalatory operations and Iran nuclear instability create regional spillover risks
  NEXUS forecast: 13% probability, resolves by 2026-03-31.
Monday, 16 March 20261 update
- 04:02Forecast
  ForecastLebanon's currency (USD/LBP) will weaken above 90,000 Lebanese pounds per dollar on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Hezbollah's active military operations against Israel escalate financial system stress and capital flight
  NEXUS forecast: 48% probability, resolves by 2026-03-30.

Open NEXUS forecasts

53%Israel and Iran will conduct a direct state-attributed missile or airstrike exchange targeting military or nuclear infrastructure within 21 days.by 2026-10-01
85%A confirmed new cross-border military exchange (strikes, rocket fire, or incursion) between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon will occur within 14 days.by 2026-10-02
85%A confirmed Israel-Hezbollah cross-border strike (rocket fire, drone attack, or airstrike) will occur within 14 days as the October 7 anniversary and Rosh Chodesh Cheshvan convergence window approaches.by 2026-10-05
52%Israel or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct a new direct military strike on the other's nuclear or naval infrastructure within 30 days.by 2026-10-06
51%Israel will conduct a direct military strike on Iranian nuclear-related infrastructure within 30 days.by 2026-10-07
46%Israel will conduct a confirmed direct military strike specifically targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure (not Hezbollah or proxy targets) within 30 days.by 2026-10-07
69%Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy force will conduct a confirmed attack on Israeli or US-linked assets timed to the October 7 anniversary window (October 1-14, 2026).by 2026-10-07
85%Israel will conduct a publicly confirmed military strike against Hamas or Hezbollah targets in Gaza or Lebanon during the October 7 anniversary window (Oct 1-8, 2026).by 2026-10-08

This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.

News

NewsNetanyahu flew to UAE to ask MBZ to deny giving him pre-Oct. 7 warning of Hamas attack - sources - The Times of Israel

timesofisrael.com

11:43News

NewsIsraeli fans direct monkey chants and military slogans at Ireland's players

Al Jazeera

Stuck between Israeli military checkpoints

Al Jazeera

17:50News

NewsWatch: Israel releases footage of strike killing terrorist who abducted Noa Argamani - Ynetnews

Ynetnews

14:03News

NewsIsrael's Smotrich calls for 'war' in West Bank: Rhetoric or real threat?

Al Jazeera

13:54News

NewsPalestinian death toll in Gaza war passes 74,000, and other Mideast news

Washington Times

The Palestinian death toll from the nearly three-year Israel-Hamas war has surpassed 74,000, according to Gaza's Health Ministry.

13:15News

NewsTerrorist from abduction of Noa Argamani, Avinatan Or on Oct. 7 killed in strike - IDF - The Times of Israel

The Times of Israel

10:04News

NewsIsraeli minister Bezalel Smotrich calls for war in occupied West Bank - Al Jazeera

Al Jazeera

10:01News

NewsIsraeli minister Bezalel Smotrich calls for war in occupied West Bank

Al Jazeera

06:18

Resolved

ResolvedIsrael will conduct a new confirmed airstrike or military operation in Lebanon or Syria within 7 days, coinciding with the Yom Kippur War anniversary / Erev Yom Kippur convergence window (Sept 19-21).

Resolved as a hit (forecast at 74%). Reuters (wire tier): 'Israeli strikes on southern Lebanese town kill 13 as fears of escalation mount' dated Mon, 14 Sep 2026, which falls within the evidence window (2026-09-13 to 2026-09-20) and the Sept 19-21 Yom Kippur convergence window claim period. This is a past-tense, wire-confirmed Israeli

Israel will conduct a new confirmed airstrike or military operation in Lebanon or Syria within 7 days, coinciding with the Yom Kippur War anniversary / Erev Yom Kippur convergence window (Sept 19-21).

NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.

Forecast

Israel and Iran will conduct a direct state-attributed missile or airstrike exchange targeting military or nuclear infrastructure within 21 days.

NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-10-01.

13:33Forecast

ForecastIsrael will publicly report a heightened military alert, mobilization, or security operation specifically tied to the October 7 anniversary period within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast: 75% probability, resolves by 2026-10-10.

09:33Forecast

ForecastThe United States will cast or threaten a veto blocking a UN Security Council resolution on a Gaza ceasefire during the UN General Assembly session within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast: 58% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.

Hamas or Gaza-based militant groups will conduct or publicly claim at least one attack on Israeli territory or forces within 30 days, coinciding with the October 7 anniversary convergence window.

NEXUS forecast: 69% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.

Israel will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iran-linked target outside Lebanon/Gaza (e.g., Syria, Yemen, or Iranian territory/proxy infrastructure) within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.

04:33Forecast

ForecastIsrael will conduct at least one confirmed military strike against Hezbollah or Hamas-linked targets within the 7-day window surrounding the September 19 Yom Kippur/Autumnal Equinox anniversary convergence

NEXUS forecast: 73% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.

02:33Forecast

ForecastIsrael will conduct at least one confirmed military strike against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon within 14 days

NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.

Iran will conduct a confirmed direct missile or drone strike on Israeli territory within 14 days

NEXUS forecast: 45% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.

10:33Forecast

ForecastIsrael will conduct a confirmed direct military strike specifically targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure (not Hezbollah or proxy targets) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast: 46% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.

08:33Forecast

ForecastIsrael will conduct at least one confirmed airstrike targeting Hezbollah or Iranian-linked military infrastructure in Lebanon within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast: 77% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.

07:33Forecast

ForecastHezbollah will conduct at least one additional confirmed rocket, drone, or cross-border attack against Israel within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast: 76% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.

01:33Forecast

ForecastIsrael will conduct a direct military strike on Iranian nuclear-related infrastructure within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast: 51% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.