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Live tracker·Middle East·Updated
Israel, Gaza and Lebanon conflict
The conflict involving Israel, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon: strikes, hostages, ceasefire negotiations and regional escalation.
Live tracker·Middle East·Updated
The conflict involving Israel, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon: strikes, hostages, ceasefire negotiations and regional escalation.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 51%). [basis: absence] Two differently phrased searches for Israel striking Iranian nuclear facilities during September 7–October 7, 2026 yielded no dated confirmation of a completed Israeli strike on nuclear-related infrastructure. Results instead included an October 7 U.S. News explainer on Iran enrichm
Resolved as expired (forecast at 52%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" at 84%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsGermany news: Left-leaning Berlin coalition talks break down
Deutsche Welle
The SPD and Greens in Berlin have halted exploratory coalition talks with the Left Party amid a dispute over Israel policy and antisemitism. DW has more.
Odds
NewsIsraeli strike on tent in Gaza's Khan Younis kills three
Al Jazeera
NewsTwo killed near Israeli-occupied area in south Lebanon
Al Jazeera
NewsMojtaba Khamenei defies 'malicious' attacks as US Army zeroes in on Iran's 350,000 troops
Fox News
Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei claimed U.S. and Israeli strikes failed to weaken Iran's military, as the U.S. Army released a new threat guide.
News
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?" at 94%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
News
NewsFlydubai co-pilot planned suicide attack on Israeli airport, UAE prosecutors say
The Guardian
Hammam al-Hammami is believed to have been targeting the passenger terminal at Ben Gurion airport near Tel Aviv The co-pilot who tried to seize control of a passenger jet flying from Dubai to
News'Neither war nor peace': Palestinians in Gaza on existing amid disease, despair and ruins
The Guardian
People tell of lives changed beyond recognition after the 7 October attacks by Hamas three years ago and the subsequent Israeli offensive Ahmed Ishtaiwi has six chairs. They are c
NewsRemembering the impact on the ground three years after the October 7th attacks on Israel
NBC News
It's been three years since the October 7th terror attacks where 1,200 people were killed and another 251 were taken hostage into Gaza. NBC News' Raf Sanchez was in Israel covering the events that wou
NewsIsrael claims Hamas is planning Oct. 7 anniversary attack. Does it have the means to do so?
Washington Examiner
NewsConservatives propose £10bn 'Britannia Shield' inspired by Israel's Iron Dome
The Guardian
Party to unveil plans for one of UK's 'most significant military programmes since the cold war' The Conservatives will announce plans to build a £10bn British "Iron Dome" similar to Israel's
NewsEarly indications suggest Flydubai co-pilot acted alone in attack, officials say
NBC News
Early indications suggest the Flydubai co-pilot accused of attacking his captain and trying to seize control of an Israel-bound plane was a 'lone wolf' acting alone, rather than as part of a larger or
NewsNetanyahu orders security review of flights to Israel after cockpit attack
SCMP
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered a security review of international flights to Israel on Sunday, after an attempt by an Omani co-pilot to crash an Israel-bound plane from Dubai. Netan
This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" at 86%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?" at 98%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsIsrael's military raids NGO offices in Ramallah
Al Jazeera
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" at 86%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsThe Oct. 7 Attack Changed Israel, but Not Its Politics
New York Times
As Israelis prepare to vote for the first time since the Hamas-led assault, they remain divided over whether to hold Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu responsible for negligence or fault the "treason"
NewsThe Oct. 7 Attack Changed Israel, but Not Its Politics - The New York Times
The New York Times
NewsElazar Yair Wilensky killed in school trip tragedy - Israel National News
Israel National News
Resolved as expired (forecast at 85%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NewsMunition blast during school trip kills student in Israel, and other Mideast developments
Washington Times
An explosion involving unexploded ordnance killed one student and injured 24 others during a school trip in northern Israel on Monday, officials said.
NewsIsrael pupil, 15, killed, over 20 hurt, after suspected leftover bomb detonates
SCMP
An Israeli teenager was killed and more than 20 other people injured Monday by a suspected leftover Hezbollah bomb as they hiked near the Lebanese border, officials said. The Israeli military, which d
New York Times
The cease-fire last October ostensibly brought an end to Israel's war in Gaza after the Hamas-led attacks on Oct. 7, 2023. A year later, however, Israeli strikes, though less frequent, haven't stopped
NewsHow genocidal war on Gaza is shaping Israel's election
Al Jazeera
Al Jazeera
NewsIsraeli combat medicine slashes IDF deaths after Oct 7, draws US military interest
Fox News
IDF battlefield medicine cut combat mortality rates from 15% to 7.1%, with advances in casualty evacuation and trauma care now benefiting the U.S. Army.
NewsSaudi Arabia's Riyadh Airport Attacked Again, After Days of Houthi Strikes
New York Times
The strike on Saturday was the deadliest attack in a Gulf Arab country since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in February, and forced the airport to temporarily suspend operations.
NewsJerusalem Daily: Israeli settlers attack olive farmers
Al Jazeera
NewsTerrorist Hijacker Planned 9/11-Style Attack On Israeli Airport
Daily Wire
The Omani co-pilot accused of trying to hijack an Israel-bound passenger plane began radicalizing as a student in Melbourne, Australia, where he fell in with people tied to an Islamic center he claime
NewsA year of ceasefire in Gaza through the lens of NPR's reporter
NPR
It has been one year since Hamas released the remaining Israeli hostages and President Trump promised an end to the war, but Palestinians say the past 12 months have been a ceasefire in name only.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 85%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Euronews.com
NewsUAE: Omani Flydubai co-pilot planned suicide attack
Deutsche Welle
A Flydubai co-pilot planned to crash a Dubai-Tel Aviv flight into the terminal at Israel's Ben Gurion Airport, according to a UAE official.
NewsOmani Flydubai co-pilot planned to crash plane into Israeli airport, UAE says
SCMP
An Omani Flydubai co-pilot had intended to seize a Dubai-Tel Aviv flight and crash it into a terminal at Israel's Ben Gurion airport on September 30 in a suicide attack before he was thwarted by his
NewsFlydubai hijacker planned to crash aircraft in 9/11-inspired attack, UAE says
Sky News
The alleged hijacker of a flydubai plane planned to crash into Israel's Ben Gurion airport, according to a senior Emirati official.
NewsNavi Pillay, a South African Human Rights Lawyer, Is Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize
New York Times
A U.N. commission led by Ms. Pillay that investigated the war in Gaza found last year that Israel had committed genocide against Palestinians.
NewsLive Updates: Human Rights Lawyer Navi Pillay Wins Nobel Peace Prize
New York Times
Ms. Pillay has served as a judge in her native South Africa and on international courts investigating war crimes. She led a U.N. panel that determined that Israel had committed genocide against Palest
NewsIsrael condemns Nobel peace prize award for ICJ judge Navi Pillay - live
The Guardian
The Nobel committee chair says the winner was 'instrumental in ensuring war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide are prosecuted' You can watch along below, but I will
NewsSchool's Response After Having Front-Row Seat To Attack On Israeli Student
Daily Wire
Spit on. Shoved. Chased out of a building for speaking Hebrew. And according to a new lawsuit, an Israeli American student's university stood by and let it happen. The Lawfare Project filed a lawsuit
NewsWar-ravaged Gaza is frozen in misery, a year into Trump's peace plan - The Washington Post
The Washington Post
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 53%). [basis: absence] GDELT search failed (service unavailable). Two differently phrased web searches for (1) Israel–Iran direct strikes on military/nuclear sites and (2) reciprocal missiles or air raids during the window returned no official- or wire-tier report of the specified completed exchange. Resu
CHS Capitol Hill Seattle News
BBC
NewsMike Waltz fights back tears revealing what Hamas hostage refused to do before release
Fox News
Eliya Cohen, freed after 505 days in Hamas captivity, and Nova festival survivor Ziv Abud shared their harrowing stories at the United Nations.
News'Beat His Ass': Daily Wire Reporter Threatened At NYC Anti-Israel Protest
Daily Wire
A Daily Wire reporter was threatened and harassed Wednesday while covering an anti-Israel demonstration in New York City on the third anniversary of Hamas' October 7 attack on Israel. Gideon Askowitz
News76 Retired U.S. Military Leaders Slam Gaza 'Genocide' Smear Of Israel On Oct. 7 Anniversary
Daily Wire
A powerhouse roster of 76 retired American military officers, 74 of them generals and admirals, fired back Wednesday at the claim that Israel committed genocide in Gaza. They called it a legally bankr
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" at 84%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsIsrael Says It Has Killed Two-Thirds Of October 7 Attackers, Vows To Hunt Down The Rest
Daily Wire
With Israel marking three years since the October 7 massacre, Defense Minister Israel Katz said Monday that approximately 4,000 of the 6,000 terrorists who invaded Israel during the Hamas-led assault
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?" at 74%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsIsraelis scarred by Oct. 7 attack weigh Netanyahu's political future - The Washington Post
The Washington Post
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" at 83%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsAftermath of Oct. 7 fuels deep divisions over Netanyahu ahead of Israeli election
Washington Times
As Israel gears up for its first elections since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his opponents are putting it at the heart of their campaigns.
NewsScars from Oct. 7 fuel deep divisions over Netanyahu ahead of Israeli election
Washington Times
As Israel gears up for its first elections since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his opponents are putting it at the heart of their campaigns.
NewsMuslim Mayor Turns October 7 Memorial Message Into An Attack On Israel
Daily Wire
London's Muslim Mayor Sadiq Khan sparked a firestorm Wednesday after he used his statement marking three years since Hamas' October 7 massacre to condemn Israel. Khan opened his message by calling the
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?" at 64%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
News3 years on, Israelis grapple with reports Netanyahu was warned before Oct. 7 attacks
NPR
On the three-year mark since the Hamas-led deadly attack, Israelis are grappling with reports that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was repeatedly warned by regional allies ahead of time.
NewsWhat does a year-long ceasefire in Gaza look like?
Al Jazeera
NewsWhat Life in Gaza Is Like Now
New York Times
Nearly a year after Israel and Hamas agreed to end the war in Gaza, Saher Alghorra, a photographer for The New York Times, documents how residents are coping and working to rebuild their lives.
NewsIsrael continues demolishing buildings in Gaza a year after ceasefire
SCMP
It's perhaps the most dramatic wound inflicted on the Gaza Strip by Israel's military campaign over the past three years: the city of Rafah, once home to a quarter million people, has been erased. Sat
NewsIsraeli kibbutz marks three years since the Oct. 7 attack
NBC News
Residents of Kibbutz Kfar Aza held a memorial at 6:29 a.m. to make the exact time Hamas militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, which killed 1,200 Israels with another 251 taken hostage in Gaza. Th
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?" at 94%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsIsrael marks third anniversary of October 7 Hamas terror attacks with memorials
Deutsche Welle
Families gathered at the Nova music festival site and other attack locations in memory of those killed by Hamas on October 7, 2023.
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?" at 64%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsIsraelis mourn on the anniversary of the Oct. 7 as Palestinians grapple with war it sparked
NPR
Israelis are gathering Wednesday to commemorate the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that killed 1,200 people, and sparked a devastating war in Gaza that Palestinians still grapple with.
NewsIsrael marks 3 years since October 7 attack that sparked war in Gaza
SCMP
Israel marked the third anniversary of Hamas' October 7 attack on Wednesday with silent tributes, new strikes on Gaza and intense political debate, weeks before elections in which the country's deadli
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" at 83%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
Washington Examiner
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?" at 94%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" at 84%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsFlydubai pilot planned 9/11-style attack, source tells NBC News
NBC News
The pilot who tried to bring down an Israel-bound flight had been planning a 9/11-style attack, a Middle Eastern official has told NBC News.
News'UNRWA is Hamas,' Israeli attorney warns as explosive Oct 7 lawsuit rocks UN agency
Fox News
The family of Yonatan Samerano, killed fleeing the Nova music festival on Oct. 7, is suing UNRWA after the Knesset stripped its diplomatic immunity.
OddsPolymarket: "Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?" at 89%
Polymarket
Moved from 78% since the last logged price.
OddsPolymarket: "Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15?" at 78%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsWorld Bank Warns Asia Is Running Out of Money to Fight Energy Shock
OilPrice
Asian countries have responded more aggressively than others to the energy supply crunch caused by the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran and now they are running out of resources to continue their response
Resolved as expired (forecast at 74%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NewsFlydubai Passenger Describes Surreal Synagogue Moment After Surviving Terror Attack
Daily Wire
An Israeli passenger who helped stop a terrorist co-pilot from crashing a Flydubai flight said a Bible verse left him shivering when he visited a synagogue days after returning home. Asaf Rejuwan, an
NewsIsraeli medical workers who treated Oct 7 wounded relive day terror hit home
Fox News
Nil Kirsht-Levi's sister was taken hostage on Oct. 7 as Soroka Medical Center received 674 wounded in 24 hours with just 40 seconds between.
News'There will be no Hamas rule in Gaza,' Netanyahu vows at October 7 memorial
SCMP
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday vowed there would be no Hamas rule in Gaza as he attended a memorial event marking three years since the militant group's October 7, 2023 attack. Mo
NewsVance Says U.S. Eyeing Bigger Question In Israel Hijacker Attack
Daily Wire
Vice President JD Vance said Monday that the Trump administration is looking into U.S. procedures to keep dangerous individuals from piloting aircraft following last week's attack aboard an Israel-bou
NewsFailed asylum seeker who attempted knife attack on Israeli embassy jailed for life
Sky News
A failed asylum seeker who tried to launch a knife attack on London's Israeli embassy has been jailed for life.
NewsIsrael's mental health crisis in the wake of Oct. 7 attacks
Deutsche Welle
More than a third of Israelis have shown symptoms of mental health conditions, a report found. Three years after the October 7 attack, the country's health system is still struggling to come to terms
NewsIsrael observes October 7 anniversary with national memorial day
Deutsche Welle
Israel is holding memorial ceremonies nationwide for those killed in the October 7, 2023 Hamas terror attacks and soldiers who died in the ensuing war.
NewsBritish Jews more likely to identify as Zionist since 7 October attacks, research finds
The Guardian
Percentage who feel 'very emotionally attached to Israel' rose to 51% in June 2025, up 13 points from before Gaza war British Jews have become more likely to identify as Zionist, consider emi
NewsEarly indications suggest Flydubai co-pilot acted alone in attack, officials say
NBC News
Early indications suggest the Flydubai co-pilot accused of attacking his captain and trying to seize control of an Israel bound plane acted alone, rather than as part of a larger organization or on be
NewsIsraeli strike kills 1 Palestinian in Gaza, and other Mideast news
Washington Times
An Israeli strike has killed at least one person in the Gaza Strip as Palestinians continue reporting a surge in Israeli strikes across the enclave. Meanwhile, Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi rebels said a
NewsHow A Cockpit Safety Tool Became The Terrorist's Weapon In Israel's Near-9/11
Daily Wire
The co-pilot accused of attacking his captain aboard an Israel-bound FlyDubai flight last week used the cockpit's own emergency crash axe and was attempting a terrorist attack, United Arab Emirates au