Live tracker·Middle East·Updated
The conflict involving Israel, Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon: strikes, hostages, ceasefire negotiations and regional escalation.
OddsPolymarket: "Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?" at 84%
Polymarket
First tracked price for this market.
NewsAs the U.S. signals a smaller Middle East footprint, Turkey is ready to step in
NPR
Turkey's bid for regional influence comes at a time when the Middle East has been hit by profound shocks that started with the Hamas-led 2023 attack on Israel, and continues with the stalemated, seven
NewsNetanyahu Visits Emirati Leader After Reports on Warning About Hamas Attack
New York Times
Official statements said bilateral relations were discussed. But the question of who bears responsibility for failing to prevent the Oct. 7 attack is a major election issue in Israel.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 70%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
ResolvedIran will conduct a confirmed direct missile or drone strike on Israeli territory within 14 days
Resolved as expired (forecast at 45%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NewsPalestine has become electoral issue in UK for first time, says solidarity campaign chief
The Guardian
Anger over Israel's war in Gaza is mobilising British voters, according to Aimee Shalan Palestine has become a domestic electoral issue in Britain for the first time, according to the incomin
News
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 77%). Al Jazeera (wire tier), Sep 7 2026: 'Israeli air attacks kill at least 12 people in southern Lebanon' -- confirms Israeli airstrikes targeting southern Lebanon (Hezbollah stronghold) within the prediction window (2026-09-07 to 2026-09-21). Additional corroboration: france24.com reported (Sep 10 2026
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 76%). [basis: absence] Searched 'Hezbollah rocket attack Israel September 2026', 'Hezbollah fires rockets drone Israel confirmed attack', 'Hezbollah launches rocket Israel border September', 'Hezbollah attack IDF soldier drone strike September 2026 confirmed'. Found only reports of ISRAEL preemptively des
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
ForecastIsrael and Hamas will publicly announce a new or extended ceasefire arrangement within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-10-23.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-23.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-05.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 49%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 46%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-02.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-16.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-15.
NEXUS forecast: 54% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.
NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-09-28.
NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.
NEXUS forecast: 79% probability, resolves by 2026-10-13.
Forecast
ForecastIsrael will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear facility within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast: 56% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.
NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.
NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.
NEXUS forecast: 73% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.
NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.
NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-09-23.
Forecast
ForecastIsrael will conduct a confirmed airstrike against a Hezbollah target inside Lebanon within 14 days.
NEXUS forecast: 76% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.
NEXUS forecast: 51% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.
NEXUS forecast: 69% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 52% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
NEXUS forecast: 46% probability, resolves by 2026-09-11.
NEXUS forecast: 49% probability, resolves by 2026-09-13.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 20%). [basis: absence] Multiple searches (5 differently-phrased queries) covering the full evidence window 2026-07-14 to 2026-08-13 show an active US-Iran war (US airstrikes on Iran, IRGC retaliatory strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Houthi actions) but NO wire/official-tier report of a DIRE
NEXUS forecast: 20% probability, resolves by 2026-08-13.
Resolved as a partial (forecast at 42%). Search within evidence window 2026-03-30 to 2026-04-06 found evidence of airline disruptions due to Middle East conflict. Multiple sources confirm 'Global airlines slash Middle East flights as conflict widens' and specific mentions of Lufthansa and Air France extending Middle East flight suspensions
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 33%). Evidence Window March 28-April 4, 2026: Multiple sources confirm Iranian strikes during the window. BBC reports 'US and Israel attack Iran' (Apr 3), suggesting active conflict. Institute for Study of War provides Iran Updates (Apr 1, Apr 2). New York Times reports '12 U.S. Troops Injured in Attack o
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 26%). ایران اینترنشنال reported on March 18, 2026: 'NATO to deploy additional Patriot system in southern Turkey - ministry.' This constitutes a military deployment announcement within the 14-day window (March 17-31). Actual: 1 deployment announced, Required: at least 1 deployment, 1 ≥ 1 therefore threshol
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 13%). No evidence found of Lebanon announcing new border security measures or military deployments within the evidence window. Search results showed Syrian border tunnel discoveries, US Pentagon troop deployments to Middle East, and Israeli military issues, but no specific Lebanese government announcement
NEXUS forecast: 42% probability, resolves by 2026-04-06.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 48%). USD/LBP exceeded 90,000 on 8 trading days within the evidence window (2026-03-16 to 2026-03-30): March 11 (90,009.32), March 12 (90,438.76 high), March 13 (90,619.27 high), March 14 (90,102.67 high, 90,007.77 close), March 15 (90,130.29 high), March 16 (90,465.65 high), March 17 (90,334.25 high), Ma
NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-04-04.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 10%). Web search for Hezbollah rocket attacks during March 18-25, 2026 evidence window found 2 results: one about Netanyahu statements saying 'Hezbollah is no longer what it was' and another about Israeli tank fire on UN positions. No specific evidence of Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israeli territory duri
NEXUS forecast: 10% probability, resolves by 2026-03-25.
NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-03-31.
NEXUS forecast: 13% probability, resolves by 2026-03-31.
NEXUS forecast: 48% probability, resolves by 2026-03-30.
This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.
Al Jazeera
NewsPalestinian death toll in Gaza war passes 74,000, and other Mideast news
Washington Times
The Palestinian death toll from the nearly three-year Israel-Hamas war has surpassed 74,000, according to Gaza's Health Ministry.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 74%). Reuters (wire tier): 'Israeli strikes on southern Lebanese town kill 13 as fears of escalation mount' dated Mon, 14 Sep 2026, which falls within the evidence window (2026-09-13 to 2026-09-20) and the Sept 19-21 Yom Kippur convergence window claim period. This is a past-tense, wire-confirmed Israeli
NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.
NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-10-01.
NEXUS forecast: 75% probability, resolves by 2026-10-10.
NEXUS forecast: 58% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.
NEXUS forecast: 69% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.
NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.
NEXUS forecast: 73% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.
NEXUS forecast: 74% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.
NEXUS forecast: 45% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.
NEXUS forecast: 46% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
NEXUS forecast: 77% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.
NEXUS forecast: 76% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.
NEXUS forecast: 51% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.