Israel will conduct a confirmed airstrike against a Hezbollah target inside Lebanon within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 76% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-22.

Hezbollah Intelligence Update (2026-05-19/03-28) describes active military conflict, sustained rocket attacks, and Hezbollah's refusal of ceasefire terms, distinct from the Iran-nuclear track already covered by pending predictions; base rate for binary_event/geopolitical is 55%, matching evidence strength.

Probability: 76%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 227d ago
Made: Sep 8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Russia will announce a formal unilateral or negotiated ceasefire covering at least one active front sector within 30 days.

geopolitical20%

Hamas or Gaza-based militant groups will conduct or publicly claim at least one attack on Israeli territory or forces within 30 days, coinciding with the October 7 anniversary convergence window.

geopolitical69%

Eduardo Bolsonaro will win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election.

geopolitical5%

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Israel will conduct a confirmed airstrike against Iranian-backed militia or IRGC-linked targets inside Syria within 14 days.

geopolitical72%

Israel will conduct a confirmed airstrike against a Hezbollah target inside Lebanon within 14 days.

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