HITBrier 0.267

USD/LBP exceeded 90,000 on 8 trading days within the evidence window (2026-03-16 to 2026-03-30): March 11 (90,009.32), March 12 (90,438.76 high), March 13 (90,619.27 high), March 14 (90,102.67 high, 90,007.77 close), March 15 (90,130.29 high), March 16 (90,465.65 high), March 17 (90,334.25 high), March 18 (90,432.35 high), March 19 (90,449.89 high), March 20 (90,466.68 high), March 21 (90,142.24 high), March 22 (90,126.78 high), March 23 (90,336.71 high), March 24 (90,367.45 high), March 25 (90,500.11 high), March 26 (90,340.24 high), March 27 (90,370.85 high), March 28 (90,295.39 high), March 29 (90,390.59 high), March 30 (90,163.42 high). Actual: 8+ days, Required: at least 3 days, 8 > 3 therefore threshold met.

Resolved Mar 30, 2026

Market

SHORT correctLBP

Lebanon's currency (USD/LBP) will weaken above 90,000 Lebanese pounds per dollar on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Hezbollah's active military operations against Israel escalate financial system stress and capital flight

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-16 at 48% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-30. Brier score 0.267.

Derived from: Actor intelligence shows Hezbollah actively engaged in armed conflict with Israel across multiple domains. Knowledge bank confirms live Israel-Iran-Hezbollah conflict. Lebanese financial system historically collapses during military escalation. Wartime regime indicates continued conflict pressure on regional currencies.

Probability: 48%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 30183d ago
Made: Mar 16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Lebanese Pound (USD/LBP) will weaken past 90,000 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Hezbollah reconstruction costs and Iranian support flows create additional currency pressures in wartime conditions

market64%HIT

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Lebanon's currency (USD/LBP) will weaken above 90,000 Lebanese pounds per dollar on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Hezbollah's active military operations against Israel escalate financial system stress and capital flight

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