HITBrier 0.131

USD/LBP data shows the pair exceeded 90,000 on multiple trading days during the prediction window (March 22 to April 21, 2026). Specific instances: March 30 close at 90,078.85, April 13 high at 91,146.54, April 14 high at 91,689.94, April 15 high at 91,541.90, April 16 high at 91,555.39, April 17 high at 91,712.18, April 18 high at 91,801.08, April 19 high at 91,797.58, April 20 high at 91,933.10, April 21 high at 91,583.77. Actual: At least 10 trading days above 90,000, Required: 2 trading days, 10 > 2 therefore threshold MET.

Resolved Apr 21, 2026

Market

LONG correctLBP

Lebanese Pound (USD/LBP) will weaken past 90,000 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Hezbollah reconstruction costs and Iranian support flows create additional currency pressures in wartime conditions

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-22 at 64% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-21. Brier score 0.131.

Derived from: Actor Intelligence showing Hezbollah in 'post-conflict recovery phase with significant organizational damage' requiring 'direct Iranian restructuring support', wartime regime creating regional currency instability, emerging market currency stress patterns during geopolitical crises

Probability: 64%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 21161d ago
Made: Mar 22

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Lebanon's currency (USD/LBP) will weaken above 90,000 Lebanese pounds per dollar on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Hezbollah's active military operations against Israel escalate financial system stress and capital flight

market48%HIT

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Lebanese Pound (USD/LBP) will weaken past 90,000 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Hezbollah reconstruction costs and Iranian support flows create additional currency pressures in wartime conditions

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture