Israel will conduct a new confirmed military strike or operation in Gaza within 30 days, coinciding with the October 7 third-anniversary convergence window flagged in the active signals calendar.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 79% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-13.
Active signal 'Rosh Chodesh Cheshvan + October 7 Anniversary' (2026-10-07, intensity 3/5) flags defense/energy/shipping sector risk; Hamas actor intelligence shows continued military leadership losses from Israeli operations, and binary_event/geopolitical reference class hit rate is 55%.
- Probability
- 79%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 13in 14d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.