Israel will conduct a new confirmed military strike or operation in Gaza within 30 days, coinciding with the October 7 third-anniversary convergence window flagged in the active signals calendar.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 79% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-13.

Active signal 'Rosh Chodesh Cheshvan + October 7 Anniversary' (2026-10-07, intensity 3/5) flags defense/energy/shipping sector risk; Hamas actor intelligence shows continued military leadership losses from Israeli operations, and binary_event/geopolitical reference class hit rate is 55%.

Probability: 79%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 13in 14d
Made: Sep 13

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report a single-day PLA aircraft incursion into its Air Defense Identification Zone exceeding 40 aircraft within 14 days.

geopolitical60%

OPEC+ will announce an unchanged production quota (neither a cut nor an increase) at its next monthly ministerial-level output decision within 30 days.

geopolitical24%

China's PBOC will announce a cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) or an equivalent broad monetary easing measure within 30 days.

geopolitical22%

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The US Treasury or OFAC will announce a new sanctions designation targeting Russian oil trade intermediaries or shadow-fleet operators within 14 days.

geopolitical28%

Israel will conduct a new confirmed military strike or operation in Gaza within 30 days, coinciding with the October 7 third-anniversary convergence window flagged in the active signals calendar.

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