Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report a single-day PLA aircraft incursion into its Air Defense Identification Zone exceeding 40 aircraft within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-13 at 60% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-27.

Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis analysis shows a narrow 25% bargaining range with China in 'gray zone escalation' as the dominant strategy (100% equilibrium probability) and critical coalition fracture risk (30% stability), supporting continued high-intensity ADIZ pressure distinct from the pending large-scale-exercise prediction.

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 272d ago
Made: Sep 13

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Israel will conduct a new confirmed military strike or operation in Gaza within 30 days, coinciding with the October 7 third-anniversary convergence window flagged in the active signals calendar.

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OPEC+ will announce an unchanged production quota (neither a cut nor an increase) at its next monthly ministerial-level output decision within 30 days.

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China's PBOC will announce a cut to the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) or an equivalent broad monetary easing measure within 30 days.

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The US Treasury or OFAC will announce a new sanctions designation targeting Russian oil trade intermediaries or shadow-fleet operators within 14 days.

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Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report a single-day PLA aircraft incursion into its Air Defense Identification Zone exceeding 40 aircraft within 14 days.

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