Israel will conduct a confirmed direct military strike on mainland Iranian soil (not proxy/IRGC assets abroad) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 51% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-08.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian assessment shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range), structural conditions favoring conflict, bearish market assessment at 60% confidence. Prior identical 30-day window claim was denied (no direct Israel-Iran strike confirmed), so confidence is capped below the base equilibrium probability to reflect that track record.

Probability: 51%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Saudi Arabia will announce a unilateral OPEC+ production cut of at least 500,000 bpd within 30 days.

geopolitical17%

The US Treasury will announce an increased proportion of short-term bill issuance in its next quarterly refunding announcement within 30 days.

geopolitical22%

Israel will conduct a confirmed airstrike against a Hezbollah target inside Lebanon within 14 days.

geopolitical76%

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Russia will announce a formal unilateral or negotiated ceasefire covering at least one active front sector within 30 days.

geopolitical20%

Israel will conduct a confirmed direct military strike on mainland Iranian soil (not proxy/IRGC assets abroad) within 30 days.

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