Israel will conduct a confirmed direct military strike on mainland Iranian soil (not proxy/IRGC assets abroad) within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 51% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-08.
Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian assessment shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range), structural conditions favoring conflict, bearish market assessment at 60% confidence. Prior identical 30-day window claim was denied (no direct Israel-Iran strike confirmed), so confidence is capped below the base equilibrium probability to reflect that track record.
- Probability
- 51%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Oct 8in 9d
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.