The US Treasury will announce an increased proportion of short-term bill issuance in its next quarterly refunding announcement within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-08 at 22% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-08.

Bayesian US Treasury Supply Crisis equilibrium: 'US front-loads short-term bills / markets demand higher term premium' at 100% probability among modeled equilibria, though fragile (30% coalition stability) — a specific single-actor policy action.

Probability: 22%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 8in 9d
Made: Sep 8

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Saudi Arabia will announce a unilateral OPEC+ production cut of at least 500,000 bpd within 30 days.

geopolitical17%

Israel will conduct a confirmed direct military strike on mainland Iranian soil (not proxy/IRGC assets abroad) within 30 days.

geopolitical51%

Israel will conduct a confirmed airstrike against a Hezbollah target inside Lebanon within 14 days.

geopolitical76%

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Russia will announce a formal unilateral or negotiated ceasefire covering at least one active front sector within 30 days.

geopolitical20%

The US Treasury will announce an increased proportion of short-term bill issuance in its next quarterly refunding announcement within 30 days.

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