Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a confirmed attack or seizure incident targeting a non-Israeli, non-US Gulf-state oil export facility or tanker within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 70% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-09-29.

Derived from the Strait of Hormuz Bayesian escalation probability of 67% and the Iran Nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conflict conditions), extending the already-confirmed pattern of tanker seizures/mine incidents to a fresh target class (Gulf-state infrastructure) not yet covered by pending predictions.

Probability: 70%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 218d ago
Made: Sep 7

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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a confirmed attack or seizure incident targeting a non-Israeli, non-US Gulf-state oil export facility or tanker within 14 days.

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