China will announce a new targeted property-sector bailout or stimulus measure (e.g. developer liquidity support, local-government debt swap expansion) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-07 at 27% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Bayesian/Nash China Property-Stimulus Dilemma equilibrium: China chooses 'Targeted property bailout,' markets go long China recovery (mixed, 70% confidence, 1 equilibrium) — distinct catalyst from Taiwan/PLA military angle already covered.

Probability: 27%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 7

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will formally suspend or restrict IAEA inspector access to at least one declared nuclear facility within 30 days.

geopolitical53%

Israel will close its airspace (in whole or in part) by September 30, 2026, consistent with the wartime regime, zero-bargaining-range Iran nuclear Fearon failure, and the 67% Hormuz escalation probability compounding audience-cost pressure ahead of the October 7 anniversary window.

geopolitical17%

Iran or an Iran-aligned force will conduct a confirmed attack or seizure incident targeting a non-Israeli, non-US Gulf-state oil export facility or tanker within 14 days.

geopolitical70%EXPIRED

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China will announce a new targeted property-sector bailout or stimulus measure (e.g. developer liquidity support, local-government debt swap expansion) within 30 days.

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