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China, Taiwan and the South China Sea: live tracker and timeline | NEXUS Intelligence

Live tracker·Asia-Pacific·Updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026, 07:35 UTC

China, Taiwan and the South China Sea

Chinese military and coast guard pressure around Taiwan, the Senkakus and the South China Sea, including standoffs with the Philippines and Japan.

Illustrative image

State of play

Taiwan reported tracking 13 Chinese ships and five military aircraft, and a NEXUS forecast for a new Chinese gray-zone incursion within 14 days was resolved as a hit. China sanctioned officials from Paraguay and Belize over ties with Taiwan, while Taiwan plans to raise the retirement age for military pilots and boost defence spending. In the South China Sea, the Philippines rejected Beijing’s calls to restore direct military communication channels, amid warnings about miscalculation. Polymarket put the probability of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026 at 2%.

Written Wednesday, 14 October 2026 from the timeline

Market odds: 2%Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Open forecasts: 12
NEXUS record: 14/46hits on this story, misses included

Open NEXUS forecasts

29%

The United States will announce a new economic, trade, or export-control restriction targeting Chinese firms or entities linked to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.by 2026-10-14

46%China will announce a new economic sanction, export restriction, or trade retaliation measure explicitly targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 daysby 2026-10-15

15%A China Coast Guard vessel will enter the territorial waters surrounding the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands by October 17, 2026.by 2026-10-17

85%China will conduct a large-scale, multi-day military exercise (Joint Sword-type) encircling or partially encircling Taiwan within 30 days.by 2026-10-19

85%China will maintain gray-zone coercive military activity against Taiwan without escalating to a full blockade through October 20, 2026.by 2026-10-20

85%China will conduct a large-scale joint military exercise explicitly framed as rehearsing a blockade of Taiwan within 30 days.by 2026-10-25

49%China will impose new formal trade, customs, or export restrictions targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 days.by 2026-10-25

30%China Coast Guard will use a water cannon against a Philippine vessel near Scarborough Shoal by November 4, 2026.by 2026-11-04

Latest first

Wednesday, 14 October 20261 update
- 07:35News
  NewsWill South China Sea's code of conduct remain elusive as deadline looms?
  SCMP
  A long-awaited code of conduct (COC) for the South China Sea risks becoming a toothless agreement, analysts have warned, as Beijing and Southeast Asian nations scramble to hammer out a deal by the end
Tuesday, 13 October 20264 updates
- 18:19Resolved
  ResolvedChina will conduct a new gray-zone military incursion (naval or air) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.
  Resolved as a hit (forecast at 85%). Taiwan News (other tier), October 3, 2026: 'Taiwan tracks 13 Chinese ships, 5 military aircraft' within prediction window, confirming Chinese naval presence in waters surrounding Taiwan. Actual: at least 1 reported incursion day, required: 1; 1 >= 1, threshold met. The metadata 'Price Target: ADIZ a
- 14:35News
  NewsPhilippines rejects China's calls for direct contact amid 'miscalculation' warnings
  SCMP
  The Philippine military has rejected calls to restore direct communication channels with its Chinese counterpart, despite warnings from Beijing that their absence risks "miscalculation" during confron
- 07:30News
  NewsMarcos on South China Sea row; anger in Thailand over iron cage beds: 7 Asia highlights
  SCMP
  We have selected seven stories from the SCMP's coverage of Asia over the past week that resonated with our readers and shed light on topical issues. If you would like to see more of our reporting, ple
- 00:15Resolved
  ResolvedChina will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military incursion (major ADIZ violation, PLA naval exercise, or blockade rehearsal) near Taiwan within 14 days.
  Resolved as expired (forecast at 85%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Monday, 12 October 20264 updates
- 14:52News
  NewsChina sanctions Paraguay and Belize officials over ties with Taiwan
  Washington Times
  China sanctioned Paraguay's communications minister and Belize's foreign minister on Monday over ties with Taiwan, the island democracy Beijing claims as its own.
- 10:23News
  NewsTaiwan aims to raise pilot retirement age to 58 as new F-16V jets arrive
  SCMP
  Taiwan's defence ministry plans to allow military pilots to serve until the age of 58 as it grapples with the prospect of "having fighter jets but no pilots". The proposed retention scheme comes as th
- 06:21
Sunday, 11 October 20263 updates
- 22:00News
  NewsKurt Campbell on US deterrence, the Quad, Aukus and Taiwan after Xi-Trump summit
  SCMP
  Kurt Campbell is a veteran US diplomat and strategist who has played a leading role in shaping Washington's approach to China and the Indo-Pacific for more than a decade. He served as the White House
- 10:00News
  NewsHow Taiwan's military manpower shortage is undermining its ability to fight
  SCMP
  Taiwan's military is grappling with a worsening manpower shortage, with its volunteer staffing rate remaining below the 80 per cent target for a third consecutive year and concerns mounting over the i
- 00:15
Saturday, 10 October 20262 updates
- 09:38News
  NewsTaiwan to boost military spending to 'deter war' with China
  Deutsche Welle
  President Lai Ching-te ⁠said in a National Day speech that his country is boosting defense spending to 'deter war' with China. It comes after US President Donald Trump asked Taiwan to pay for US prote
- 03:00News
  NewsWill Taiwan issue derail Washington and Beijing's latest reset? Analysts are sceptical
  SCMP
  Recent interactions involving the US and Taiwan are not expected to derail the current momentum in relations between Washington and mainland China, according to diplomatic analysts. Beijing was taking
Friday, 9 October 20265 updates
- 22:20Odds
  OddsPolymarket: "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" at 2%
  Polymarket
  First tracked price for this market.
- 18:51News
  NewsChina's Next 'Gray Zone' Target: An Island Chain Critical to U.S. Defense of Taiwan - WSJ
  WSJ
- 13:04News
Thursday, 8 October 202611 updates
- 21:30News
  NewsNational security must not kill Philippines-China academic ties
  SCMP
  Educational and cultural exchanges have become a new casualty of rising tensions between the Philippines and China. About 150 Chinese teachers have left the Philippines months after Defence Secretary
- 15:00News
  NewsUS' transactional Taiwan policy puts Indo-Pacific at risk, ex-US officials warn
  SCMP
  Washington's policy towards Taiwan is increasingly tied to its relationship with Beijing, according to former American officials who also warn that the war on Iran is weakening US military readiness f
- 14:20
Wednesday, 7 October 20265 updates
- 15:59News
  NewsRecent Taiwan simulation highlights US cyberdefense gaps against China, experts warn
  Defense One
  Organizers of a cyber exercise say Washington needs to prepare for attacks that both disrupt civilian services and pressure Taipei without triggering outright military conflict.
- 12:30News
  NewsUS and China must set rules before autonomous fighters cross paths
  SCMP
  In December 2022, a Chinese J-11 fighter came within metres of a US RC-135 surveillance plane over the South China Sea, according to the US military, which criticised it as an unsafe manoeuvre. China,
- 11:00
Tuesday, 6 October 20262 updates
- 02:35News
  NewsArizona rejects warning from China, opens Taiwan representative office
  Washington Times
  Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs and Taiwanese leaders opened an economic and cultural office Monday to aid Taiwanese businesses and citizens in the region, despite pressure from the Chinese government to blo
- 01:30News
  NewsBeijing's policy advisers map out how post-reunification Taiwan could be governed
  SCMP
  In 2019, President Xi Jinping became the first Chinese leader to publicly call for the exploration of detailed proposals for governing Taiwan after reunification. Seven years later, the first proposal
Monday, 5 October 202613 updates
- 22:47News
  NewsCalifornia realtor charged with spying on Taiwan president's family in Seattle
  Washington Times
  FBI agents arrested a California realtor suspected of spying for China by illegally gathering personal information on a relative of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te and providing it to Beijing, the Justi
- 22:16News
  NewsUS accuses mainland China of targeting Taiwan leader's family in surveillance case
  SCMP
  The United States has accused mainland China of hiring an American citizen of Chinese origin to surveil the family of Taiwanese leader William Lai Ching-te, days after President Xi Jinping's state vis
- 21:14
Sunday, 4 October 20262 updates
- 10:00News
  NewsTaipei's dilemma over history deepens with Xi-Trump praise of WWII Flying Tigers
  SCMP
  Taipei's dilemma over its history during World War II appeared to deepen as Beijing and Washington looked to the Flying Tigers as a source of connection and goodwill during last month's Xi-Trump summi
- 00:15Resolved
  ResolvedThe United States Navy will conduct a publicly confirmed freedom-of-navigation or strait transit through the Taiwan Strait within 14 days.
  Resolved as expired (forecast at 71%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Saturday, 3 October 20263 updates
- 13:45News
  NewsUS to deploy NMESIS anti-ship system on Japanese island closest to Taiwan for first time
  SCMP
  The US is set to deploy one of its signature anti-ship missile systems to the Japanese island closest to Taiwan, an unprecedented move that comes as tensions in the region between Beijing and Tokyo co
- 12:31Forecast
  ForecastA China Coast Guard vessel will enter the territorial waters surrounding the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands by October 17, 2026.
  NEXUS forecast: 15% probability, resolves by 2026-10-17.
- 12:16Resolved
Friday, 2 October 202619 updates
- 18:33News
  NewsTaiwan coastguard uses water cannons to warn off mainland Chinese fishing vessel
  SCMP
  Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) used water cannons to expel a mainland Chinese fishing vessel near Dongsha Island, authorities said on Friday. The incident occurred on October 1, 27 nautical
- 16:23News
  NewsTaiwan Coast Guard confronts Chinese fishing boats in Dongsha waters
  Al Jazeera
- 15:07News
Thursday, 1 October 20268 updates
- 14:00News
  NewsWhy US Himars missile shortfalls raise stakes for a potential Taiwan Strait conflict
  SCMP
  A potential conflict in the Taiwan Strait could see crossfire exchanged between two mobile rocket systems: the US-made High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (Himars), and its mainland Chinese counterp
- 06:20Odds
  OddsPolymarket: "Game 1: Any Player Quadra Kill?" at 50%
  Polymarket
  First tracked price for this market.
- 05:48News
Wednesday, 30 September 20264 updates
- 12:31Forecast
  ForecastChinese military aircraft will cross the Taiwan Strait median line at least once between October 1 and October 7, 2026, as reported by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense.
  NEXUS forecast: 6% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
- 03:20Odds
  OddsPolymarket: "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" at 3%
  Polymarket
  First tracked price for this market.
- 02:00News
  News
Tuesday, 29 September 20263 updates
- 17:17News
  NewsPotential Taiwan tension sparked 'last minute' change in Trump-Xi National Archives visit
  NPR
  The sudden change was precipitated because of Chinese displeasure over one document that the U.S. had planned to show.
- 14:00News
  NewsUS Navy launches drone command that could reshape Taiwan war planning
  SCMP
  The US Navy has set up a dedicated command to turn its growing array of aerial, surface and underwater drones into an integrated fighting force - a capability US commanders have linked to disrupting a
- 10:45News
Monday, 28 September 20261 update
- 11:03News
  NewsChina deploys advanced WZ-7 drone for first time near Scarborough Shoal
  SCMP
  Beijing deployed its advanced WZ-7 high-altitude reconnaissance drone in the South China Sea for the first time during drills near the disputed Scarborough Shoal at the weekend. The People's Liberatio
Sunday, 27 September 20261 update
- 10:29News
  NewsChina Conducts Air-Sea Exercise Near Scarborough Shoal on Sunday - Bloomberg.com
  Bloomberg
Saturday, 26 September 20262 updates
- 12:17Resolved
  ResolvedChina's PLA will conduct at least one additional publicly reported large-scale military exercise or ADIZ incursion near Taiwan within 14 days.
  Resolved as a miss (forecast at 81%). [basis: absence] Searched multiple phrasings ('PLA military exercise Taiwan ADIZ incursion Sep 2026', 'Taiwan Defense Ministry PLA aircraft sorties reported September 2026', 'PLA Taiwan drills incursion warplanes', 'Taiwan spots PLA aircraft ships ADIZ incursion large-scale exercise') within the 202
- 00:17Resolved
  ResolvedChina's coast guard or PLA will conduct a publicly reported incursion into Japanese-administered waters near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands within 14 days.
  Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). [basis: absence] Ran three differently-phrased searches ('Senkaku Islands Chinese coast guard incursion September 2026', 'China coast guard ships Japan territorial waters Diaoyu September 2026', 'Japan coast guard protest Chinese vessels Senkaku intrusion') restricted to the 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20
Friday, 25 September 20265 updates
- 18:17Resolved
  ResolvedTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report at least one single day with 15 or more PLA aircraft incursions into its ADIZ within 14 days.
  Resolved as a hit (forecast at 73%). Taiwan News (other-tier, but reporting direct MND tallies) recorded: Sept 6: 21 aircraft; Sept 17: 19 aircraft; Sept 18: 28 aircraft; Sept 19: 20 aircraft -- all within the Sept 6-20 evidence window and all exceeding the 15-aircraft single-day threshold (e.g., 28 > 15 on Sept 18). No official/wire-t
- 12:18Resolved
  ResolvedChina's PLA will conduct a single-day incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 50 aircraft by the Autumnal Equinox/Erev Yom Kippur convergence date.
  Resolved as a miss (forecast at 49%). Taiwan MND-sourced reports (official tier mnd.gov.tw Sept19; Taiwan News other-tier) within window Sep6-20, 2026 show daily PLA aircraft counts: Sep6=21 aircraft, Sep7=2, Sep13=5, Sep18=28 (highest recorded in window), Sep19=20, Sep20=5. Actual max single-day count 28 aircraft, Required >50. 28 < 50
Thursday, 24 September 20261 update
- 03:33Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a new gray-zone military incursion (naval crossing, air intrusion into Taiwan's ADIZ, or similar coercive maneuver) near Taiwan within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
Wednesday, 23 September 20263 updates
- 06:00Resolved
  ResolvedAerospace & Defense ETF ITA will outperform SPY by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 30 days, as the confirmed Taiwan Strait PLA incursions, confirmed North Korea missile tests, and dense defense-sector signal convergence (Taiwan window, DPRK Day of Sun, October 7 anniversary, Tisha B'Av) sustain defense-sector demand.
  Resolved as expired (forecast at 22%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
- 04:33Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a new publicly reported gray-zone military incursion (naval, air, or coast guard) near Taiwan within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
- 00:32Forecast
Tuesday, 22 September 20262 updates
- 06:33Forecast
  ForecastChina will conduct a new gray-zone military incursion (naval or air) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
- 06:00Resolved
  ResolvedThe US will announce at least one additional export control, sanction, or technology-restriction action targeting Chinese firms within 30 days, continuing the pattern set by the already-confirmed August 2026 FCC/Xinjiang measures under the Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium.
  Resolved as expired (forecast at 20%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
Monday, 21 September 20264 updates
- 10:33Forecast
  ForecastChina will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military incursion (major ADIZ violation, PLA naval exercise, or blockade rehearsal) near Taiwan within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-05.
- 06:05Resolved
  ResolvedXLI (industrials sector ETF) will close above $179.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as elevated defense/military spending expectations tied to the dense October geopolitical calendar (Taiwan, DPRK, October 7 anniversary) support industrial/defense-linked equities.
  Resolved as a miss (forecast at 45%). Data-resolved: XLI moved from 175.27 to 169.75 (-3.15%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 179. Target not reached. High was 175.71.
- 06:05Resolved
Sunday, 20 September 20261 update
- 10:34Forecast
  ForecastChina will maintain gray-zone coercive military activity against Taiwan without escalating to a full blockade through October 20, 2026.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-20.
Saturday, 19 September 20262 updates
- 07:34Forecast
  ForecastChina will conduct a PLA aircraft incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ exceeding 20 sorties in a single day within 14 days, consistent with the dominant Bayesian equilibrium of sustained gray-zone escalation.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-03.
- 04:33Forecast
  ForecastChina will conduct a large-scale, multi-day military exercise (Joint Sword-type) encircling or partially encircling Taiwan within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-19.
Friday, 18 September 20261 update
- 03:33Forecast
  ForecastChina will conduct a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?' as YES
  NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-12-31.
Thursday, 17 September 20261 update
- 10:32Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military action near Taiwan (median-line crossings, ADIZ incursion surge, or live-fire exercise) within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-01.
Wednesday, 16 September 20261 update
- 06:33Forecast
  ForecastChina will conduct a new significant gray-zone military incursion (naval blockade drill, large air incursion, or similar) near Taiwan within 14 days
  NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-09-30.
Tuesday, 15 September 20263 updates
- 06:33Forecast
  ForecastChina will announce a new economic sanction, export restriction, or trade retaliation measure explicitly targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 days
  NEXUS forecast: 46% probability, resolves by 2026-10-15.
- 03:32Forecast
  ForecastChina will announce or conduct a new large-scale military exercise in the Taiwan Strait within 14 days
  NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-09-29.
- 01:33Forecast
  Forecast
Monday, 14 September 20261 update
- 10:33Forecast
  ForecastThe United States will announce a new economic, trade, or export-control restriction targeting Chinese firms or entities linked to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.
Sunday, 13 September 20262 updates
- 10:34Forecast
  ForecastTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense or a wire-tier outlet will report a new PLA naval vessel incursion into Taiwan's contiguous zone (distinct from routine ADIZ air incursions) within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.
- 04:34Forecast
  ForecastTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report a single-day PLA aircraft incursion into its Air Defense Identification Zone exceeding 40 aircraft within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.
Saturday, 12 September 20265 updates
- 23:32Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or show-of-force operation encircling Taiwan within 21 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-10-03.
- 16:33Forecast
  ForecastThe United States and China will hold a new publicly confirmed military-to-military or crisis-communication dialogue related to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 54% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
- 14:33Forecast
  Forecast
Friday, 11 September 20262 updates
- 10:33Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct at least one new confirmed gray-zone military incursion (air/naval intrusion near Taiwan or median-line crossing) within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 81% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.
- 05:05Resolved
  ResolvedEEM (emerging markets ETF) will close below $67.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions and Taiwan Strait/China fragile Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) pressure EM equities.
  Resolved as a hit (forecast at 34%). Early-confirmed: EEM hit target below 67 on 2026-09-10. Current price: 67.00 (started at 68.70).
Thursday, 10 September 20262 updates
- 06:33Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a publicly reported large-scale military exercise or show-of-force near Taiwan coinciding with the UN General Assembly week (Sept 15-26).
  NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.
- 00:34Forecast
  ForecastChina will announce a new trade, customs, or export restriction specifically targeting Taiwan-linked goods or companies within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.
Wednesday, 9 September 20264 updates
- 22:33Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct at least one publicly reported large-scale incursion (20 or more aircraft and/or vessels in a single day) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 69% probability, resolves by 2026-09-23.
- 15:33Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a publicly reported multi-day joint air-and-naval exercise encircling or partially blockading Taiwan within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.
- 11:33Forecast
  Forecast
Tuesday, 8 September 20263 updates
- 16:33Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a single-day air incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 30 aircraft within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 62% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.
- 12:33Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a multi-day large-scale naval exercise or blockade-simulation drill encircling Taiwan within 30 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 58% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
- 05:33Forecast
  Forecast
Monday, 7 September 20265 updates
- 14:33Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a large-scale multi-day encirclement military exercise around Taiwan involving both naval and air assets.
  NEXUS forecast: 56% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
- 09:34Forecast
  ForecastChina will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026.
  NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-12-31.
- 06:33Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct at least one additional publicly reported large-scale military exercise or ADIZ incursion near Taiwan within 14 days.
Sunday, 6 September 20267 updates
- 15:33Forecast
  ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a large-scale incursion (20+ aircraft or equivalent naval surge) near Taiwan during the UN General Assembly / Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window.
  NEXUS forecast: 63% probability, resolves by 2026-09-13.
- 06:05Forecast
  ForecastChina's coast guard or PLA will conduct a publicly reported incursion into Japanese-administered waters near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands within 14 days.
  NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.
- 02:32Forecast
  Forecast
Sunday, 16 August 20261 update
- 15:03Forecast
  ForecastAerospace & Defense ETF ITA will outperform SPY by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 30 days, as the confirmed Taiwan Strait PLA incursions, confirmed North Korea missile tests, and dense defense-sector signal convergence (Taiwan window, DPRK Day of Sun, October 7 anniversary, Tisha B'Av) sustain defense-sector demand.
  NEXUS forecast: 22% probability, resolves by 2026-09-15.
Saturday, 15 August 20261 update
- 06:04Forecast
  ForecastThe US will announce at least one additional export control, sanction, or technology-restriction action targeting Chinese firms within 30 days, continuing the pattern set by the already-confirmed August 2026 FCC/Xinjiang measures under the Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium.
  NEXUS forecast: 20% probability, resolves by 2026-09-14.

Open NEXUS forecasts

29%The United States will announce a new economic, trade, or export-control restriction targeting Chinese firms or entities linked to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.by 2026-10-14
46%China will announce a new economic sanction, export restriction, or trade retaliation measure explicitly targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 daysby 2026-10-15
15%A China Coast Guard vessel will enter the territorial waters surrounding the Japan-administered Senkaku Islands by October 17, 2026.by 2026-10-17
85%China will conduct a large-scale, multi-day military exercise (Joint Sword-type) encircling or partially encircling Taiwan within 30 days.by 2026-10-19
85%China will maintain gray-zone coercive military activity against Taiwan without escalating to a full blockade through October 20, 2026.by 2026-10-20
85%China will conduct a large-scale joint military exercise explicitly framed as rehearsing a blockade of Taiwan within 30 days.by 2026-10-25
49%China will impose new formal trade, customs, or export restrictions targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 days.by 2026-10-25
30%China Coast Guard will use a water cannon against a Philippine vessel near Scarborough Shoal by November 4, 2026.by 2026-11-04

This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.

News

NewsBeijing sanctions Paraguayan and Belizean ministers over support for Taiwan

SCMP

Beijing on Monday sanctioned Paraguayan and Belizean government ministers over the Taiwan issue, after the two nations sealed deals with Taipei in recent months. Gustavo Villate, Paraguay's minister o

04:58News

NewsChina sanctions Paraguay, Belize ministers over Taiwan ties

Al Jazeera

Resolved

ResolvedChina will conduct a PLA aircraft incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ exceeding 20 sorties in a single day within 14 days, consistent with the dominant Bayesian equilibrium of sustained gray-zone escalation.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 85%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

News

Is China seeking to restrict Taiwan's cultural presence?

Deutsche Welle

From coffee competitions to literature awards, Beijing appears to be working to limit Taiwan's international cultural and political impact.

08:00News

NewsChina and Philippines blame each other over South China Sea medical mission

SCMP

China and the Philippines have traded accusations over a medical evacuation near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, as Manila reports a near-doubling of Chinese military and coastguard vessels around c

00:15Resolved

ResolvedChina's PLA will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military action near Taiwan (median-line crossings, ADIZ incursion surge, or live-fire exercise) within 14 days.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 85%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

Odds

OddsPolymarket: "Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?" at 12%

Polymarket

First tracked price for this market.

13:00News

NewsDid a US warship lose power while chasing a Chinese destroyer in the South China Sea?

SCMP

The Chinese navy says it had a rare South China Sea encounter involving a foreign warship that lost power, propulsion and radar while following a People's Liberation Army destroyer, an account that re

12:00News

NewsHow expanded Japan-US military exercises could complicate PLA planning over Taiwan

SCMP

Japan and the United States will rehearse moving anti-ship missiles, air defences and communications networks onto islands near Taiwan this month in an expanded military exercise that analysts say cou

10:46News

NewsMarcos says Philippines 'resigned' to managing South China Sea dispute

SCMP

The Philippines is "resigned" to managing its long-standing dispute with Beijing in the South China Sea and avoiding dangerous escalations, President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr said on Thursday. At the Forb

07:47News

NewsEXCLUSIVE: China militia boat spotted for first time off Taiwan's east coast, patrol finds - Reuters

Reuters

06:00News

NewsUS judge blocks release of alleged Beijing agent accused of filming Taiwan leader's son

SCMP

A federal judge on Wednesday ordered Wanying "Heather" Zhang be held in custody, after her lawyers - who had fought to keep her out of jail - said she "looks forward to establishing" her innocence at

00:18Resolved

ResolvedChina's PLA will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or show-of-force operation encircling Taiwan within 21 days.

Resolved as a miss (forecast at 70%). [basis: absence] GDELT search for 'PLA China Taiwan encirclement large scale military drills exercise September 12 October 3 2026' returned an unavailable error. Two differently phrased web searches, one for 'September 12 October 3 2026 PLA Taiwan encircling large scale military exercises blockade d

00:15Resolved

ResolvedChina will conduct a new significant gray-zone military incursion (naval blockade drill, large air incursion, or similar) near Taiwan within 14 days

Resolved as expired (forecast at 85%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

00:15Resolved

ResolvedChina's PLA will conduct a large-scale naval or air exercise near Taiwan involving 20 or more aircraft/vessels in a single day during the September 10-30 UN General Assembly window.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 67%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

News

NewsHow will new longer-range aircraft boost Manila's South China Sea surveillance?

SCMP

The Philippine Coast Guard will receive three longer-range aircraft from the US, two of them modified for improved surveillance, giving Manila greater reach and endurance to monitor Chinese coastguard

00:24News

NewsWar game highlights Taiwan response to Chinese communications attacks

Washington Times

China is ramping up "gray zone" warfare against Taiwan and the Taiwanese military and civilian population are focused on responding to major telecommunications attacks as part of Beijing's plan to coe

00:15Resolved

ResolvedChina will announce or conduct a new large-scale military exercise in the Taiwan Strait within 14 days

Resolved as expired (forecast at 57%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

News

NewsMainland Chinese favour diplomacy to achieve Taiwan reunification with caveats: survey

SCMP

Mainland Chinese prefer coercion over military force to settle the "reunification question" with Taiwan, and their opinion of the US remains low, although they favour engaging with Washington on trade

18:18Resolved

ResolvedChina will conduct a new confirmed maritime confrontation (water cannon use, blocking, or collision) with Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal or Second Thomas Shoal within 14 days

Resolved as a hit (forecast at 85%). USNI News (other-tier), September 25, 2026: 'Chinese Cutters, Warships Block Philippine Resupply Mission to Second Thomas Shoal'; corroborating September 25 U.S. News & World Report (other-tier): 'Philippines Accuses China of Obstructing Resupply Mission in South China Sea.' This is a completed bloc

12:31Forecast

ForecastChina Coast Guard will use a water cannon against a Philippine vessel near Scarborough Shoal by November 4, 2026.

NEXUS forecast: 30% probability, resolves by 2026-11-04.

12:12News

NewsTaiwan navigates dangerous diplomatic waters between Trump, Xi

Washington Times

President Trump earned solid reviews in the Indo-Pacific for refusing at last month's summit to bend to Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Taiwan.

11:47News

NewsFBI arrests a woman accused of spying on Taiwan leader's family for China

NPR

The FBI and U.S. prosecutors say Wanying Zhang, also know as Heather, surveilled the Taiwanese president's son and his family.

08:45News

NewsUS defence experts to work inside Taiwan military HQ under reported pact

SCMP

A reported plan to station US defence personnel inside Taiwan's military headquarters would take cooperation from external help into the heart of defence planning, potentially angering Beijing while r

05:39News

NewsCalifornia woman arrested and accused of spying on Taiwan president's son for China

The Guardian

The FBI ⁠arrested Wanying Zhang, also known as Heather, at Los Angeles International Airport before she left for China, the agency said US authorities arrested a California ⁠woman on Sunday,

04:13News

NewsFBI arrests 'Chinese foreign agent' for spying on Taiwan president's son

Al Jazeera

03:47News

NewsUS: FBI arrests woman accused of spying for China

Deutsche Welle

A California woman was arrested at Los Angeles International Airport, just before departing for China, with the US officials accusing her of spying on Taiwan's president's son.

00:15Resolved

ResolvedTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense or a wire-tier outlet will report a new PLA naval vessel incursion into Taiwan's contiguous zone (distinct from routine ADIZ air incursions) within 14 days.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 57%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

00:15Resolved

ResolvedTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report a single-day PLA aircraft incursion into its Air Defense Identification Zone exceeding 40 aircraft within 14 days.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 60%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

ResolvedChina will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or incursion (naval or air) near Taiwan within 14 days.

Resolved as a miss (forecast at 75%). [basis: absence] GDELT search for China large-scale military drills/incursions near Taiwan returned 'GDELT unavailable.' Two differently phrased window-limited web searches ('China Taiwan large military exercise incursion aircraft navy Reuters' and 'Taiwan defense ministry PLA aircraft naval vessels

News2 Hongkongers held in Philippines for months after prison terms end

SCMP

The Chinese embassy in Manila has expressed concern over the cases of two Hongkongers who have remained in custody in the Philippines for months despite being discharged from prison, according to the

14:38News

NewsDonald Trump is planning trip to the Philippines for Asean summit

SCMP

US President Donald Trump is planning to attend the Asean summit next month, the South China Morning Post understands, as Washington vies with Beijing for influence in the region. If the trip happens,

11:16News

NewsChinese language teachers leave the Philippines over safety fears

SCMP

Around 150 Chinese language teachers in the Philippines are returning home following mounting criticism from Philippine security officials that educational exchanges involving China could pose nationa

10:00News

NewsTaiwan hails F-16V delivery as sign US support holds after Xi-Trump summit

SCMP

Taiwan has hailed the much-delayed arrival of two F-16V fighter jets as a demonstration of continuing American military support, despite a US presidential hold put on a separate multibilllion-dollar a

09:30News

NewsWhy Sabah has Malaysia watching South China Sea tensions more closely

SCMP

Malaysia's long-standing strategy of non-alignment amid US-China rivalry in the South China Sea could soon be tested, with the eastern state of Sabah sitting near a potential flashpoint involving Phil

09:20Odds

OddsPolymarket: "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?" at 2%

Polymarket

First tracked price for this market.

08:26News

NewsUS delivers F-16V fighter jets to Taiwan as island eyes threat from China

Al Jazeera

07:25News

NewsTaiwan: first new F-16V fighters arrive amid China threat

Deutsche Welle

The US-made jets, part of an order made in 2019, touched down as concerns grow in Taiwan that support from the United States could be wavering. Washington insists its policy towards Taiwan and China h

07:20Odds

OddsPolymarket: "LoL: Chinese Taipei vs South Korea - Game 4 Winner" at 50%

Polymarket

First tracked price for this market.

06:20Odds

OddsPolymarket: "LoL: Chinese Taipei vs South Korea - Game 3 Winner" at 7%

Polymarket

First tracked price for this market.

05:20Odds

OddsPolymarket: "LoL: Chinese Taipei vs South Korea (BO5) - Asian Games Playoffs" at 2%

Polymarket

Moved from 10% since the last logged price.

04:20Odds

OddsPolymarket: "LoL: Chinese Taipei vs South Korea (BO5) - Asian Games Playoffs" at 10%

Polymarket

First tracked price for this market.

03:43News

NewsWhat does Philippines seek with new Thitu map in South China Sea?

SCMP

Thitu Island and its residents have come under the spotlight after the Philippines, in a bid to reinforce its claims in the South China Sea, announced plans to file an updated maritime chart with the

03:20Odds

OddsPolymarket: "LoL: Chinese Taipei vs South Korea - Game 1 Winner" at 14%

Polymarket

Moved from 7% since the last logged price.

02:20Odds

OddsPolymarket: "LoL: Chinese Taipei vs South Korea - Game 1 Winner" at 7%

Polymarket

First tracked price for this market.

00:15Resolved

ResolvedChina's PLA will conduct a publicly reported large-scale military exercise or show-of-force near Taiwan coinciding with the UN General Assembly week (Sept 15-26).

Resolved as expired (forecast at 70%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

00:15Resolved

ResolvedChina will announce a new trade, customs, or export restriction specifically targeting Taiwan-linked goods or companies within 14 days.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 23%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

NewsPhilippines sends largest ship, aircraft to drive away Chinese vessel in waters near Taiwan - Reuters

Reuters

04:20Odds

OddsPolymarket: "Game Handicap: VIE (-1.5) vs Chinese Taipei (+1.5)" at 9%

Polymarket

Moved from 49% since the last logged price.

04:00News

NewsChinese research ship near the Batanes sparks undersea cable concerns in Manila

SCMP

A Chinese civilian research vessel has spent more than a week conducting operations in waters off the Philippines' Batanes Islands, an area that has become a new geopolitical battleground as Beijing r

03:25News

NewsIn photos: China's Xi hardens Taiwan warning as country celebrates week-long National Day holiday

CNBC

03:20Odds

OddsPolymarket: "Game Handicap: VIE (-1.5) vs Chinese Taipei (+1.5)" at 49%

Polymarket

First tracked price for this market.

00:15Resolved

ResolvedChina's PLA will conduct at least one publicly reported large-scale incursion (20 or more aircraft and/or vessels in a single day) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 69%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

Taiwan plans US$850 million ammunition spend to prepare for potential PLA blockade

SCMP

Taiwan's military plans to spend more than NT$27 billion (US$850 million) to quadruple critical ammunition stocks to 120 days' supply, strengthening its ability to sustain combat operations during a w

00:15Resolved

ResolvedChina's PLA will conduct a single-day air incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 30 aircraft within 14 days.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 62%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

NewsPhilippine coastguard battles funding cuts amid bigger South China Sea role

SCMP

The Philippines is preparing to give its coastguard more responsibilities in the contested South China Sea even as the agency faces a more basic problem: whether it has enough ships, aircraft and pers

08:33

Forecast

ForecastChina will conduct a large-scale joint military exercise explicitly framed as rehearsing a blockade of Taiwan within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.

03:34Forecast

ForecastChina will impose new formal trade, customs, or export restrictions targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast: 49% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.

01:33Forecast

ForecastChina will conduct a large-scale PLA aircraft or naval incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ (exceeding recent monthly baseline activity) within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.

ForecastThe United States will conduct or publicly announce a naval transit or joint military exercise in or near the Taiwan Strait within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.

ResolvedXLK (technology sector ETF) will close below $182.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray-zone escalation (Bayesian equilibrium: China gray zone escalation, US economic deterrence, fragile stability) compounds semiconductor supply-chain risk pricing.

Resolved as a miss (forecast at 38%). Data-resolved: XLK moved from 187.28 to 189.60 (1.24%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 182. Target not reached. Low was 182.08.

06:00Resolved

ResolvedChina's PLA will conduct a large-scale incursion (20+ aircraft or equivalent naval surge) near Taiwan during the UN General Assembly / Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window.

Resolved as expired (forecast at 63%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

China will conduct a new confirmed maritime confrontation (water cannon use, blocking, or collision) with Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal or Second Thomas Shoal within 14 days

NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-09-29.

The United States Navy will conduct a publicly confirmed freedom-of-navigation or strait transit through the Taiwan Strait within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast: 71% probability, resolves by 2026-09-26.

13:33Forecast

ForecastThe United States will announce a new arms sale package or expanded military support commitment to Taiwan within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.

08:33Forecast

ForecastChina will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or incursion (naval or air) near Taiwan within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast: 75% probability, resolves by 2026-09-26.

China will announce a new economic coercion measure (export control, import restriction, or tariff action) targeting Taiwan or a Taiwan-linked US technology company within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.

04:33Forecast

ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a single-day incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 50 aircraft by the Autumnal Equinox/Erev Yom Kippur convergence date.

NEXUS forecast: 49% probability, resolves by 2026-09-19.

China will announce or implement at least one new trade, customs, or export restriction targeting Taiwan-linked semiconductor supply chains within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.

NEXUS forecast: 81% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.

03:33Forecast

ForecastChina will conduct a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026.

NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-12-31.

00:33Forecast

ForecastChina will invade Taiwan by end of 2026

NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-12-31.

XLI (industrials sector ETF) will close above $179.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as elevated defense/military spending expectations tied to the dense October geopolitical calendar (Taiwan, DPRK, October 7 anniversary) support industrial/defense-linked equities.

NEXUS forecast: 45% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.

02:32Forecast

ForecastXLK (technology sector ETF) will close below $182.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray-zone escalation (Bayesian equilibrium: China gray zone escalation, US economic deterrence, fragile stability) compounds semiconductor supply-chain risk pricing.

NEXUS forecast: 38% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.

02:32Forecast

ForecastEEM (emerging markets ETF) will close below $67.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions and Taiwan Strait/China fragile Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) pressure EM equities.

NEXUS forecast: 34% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.

01:32Forecast

ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a large-scale naval or air exercise near Taiwan involving 20 or more aircraft/vessels in a single day during the September 10-30 UN General Assembly window.

NEXUS forecast: 67% probability, resolves by 2026-09-30.

00:57Forecast

ForecastTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report at least one single day with 15 or more PLA aircraft incursions into its ADIZ within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast: 73% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.