Live tracker·Asia-Pacific·Updated
Chinese military and coast guard pressure around Taiwan, the Senkakus and the South China Sea, including standoffs with the Philippines and Japan.
NewsChina deploys advanced WZ-7 drone for first time near Scarborough Shoal
SCMP
Beijing deployed its advanced WZ-7 high-altitude reconnaissance drone in the South China Sea for the first time during drills near the disputed Scarborough Shoal at the weekend. The People's Liberatio
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 81%). [basis: absence] Searched multiple phrasings ('PLA military exercise Taiwan ADIZ incursion Sep 2026', 'Taiwan Defense Ministry PLA aircraft sorties reported September 2026', 'PLA Taiwan drills incursion warplanes', 'Taiwan spots PLA aircraft ships ADIZ incursion large-scale exercise') within the 202
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). [basis: absence] Ran three differently-phrased searches ('Senkaku Islands Chinese coast guard incursion September 2026', 'China coast guard ships Japan territorial waters Diaoyu September 2026', 'Japan coast guard protest Chinese vessels Senkaku intrusion') restricted to the 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 73%). Taiwan News (other-tier, but reporting direct MND tallies) recorded: Sept 6: 21 aircraft; Sept 17: 19 aircraft; Sept 18: 28 aircraft; Sept 19: 20 aircraft -- all within the Sept 6-20 evidence window and all exceeding the 15-aircraft single-day threshold (e.g., 28 > 15 on Sept 18). No official/wire-t
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 49%). Taiwan MND-sourced reports (official tier mnd.gov.tw Sept19; Taiwan News other-tier) within window Sep6-20, 2026 show daily PLA aircraft counts: Sep6=21 aircraft, Sep7=2, Sep13=5, Sep18=28 (highest recorded in window), Sep19=20, Sep20=5. Actual max single-day count 28 aircraft, Required >50. 28 < 50
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 22%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 20%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-05.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 45%). Data-resolved: XLI moved from 175.27 to 169.75 (-3.15%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 179. Target not reached. High was 175.71.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-20.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-03.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-19.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-12-31.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-01.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-09-30.
NEXUS forecast: 46% probability, resolves by 2026-10-15.
NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-09-29.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.
NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.
NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.
NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-10-03.
NEXUS forecast: 54% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 81% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 34%). Early-confirmed: EEM hit target below 67 on 2026-09-10. Current price: 67.00 (started at 68.70).
NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.
NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.
NEXUS forecast: 69% probability, resolves by 2026-09-23.
NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 62% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.
NEXUS forecast: 58% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 56% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
ForecastChina will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-12-31.
NEXUS forecast: 63% probability, resolves by 2026-09-13.
NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.
Forecast
NEXUS forecast: 22% probability, resolves by 2026-09-15.
NEXUS forecast: 20% probability, resolves by 2026-09-14.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 6%). Wire-tier Reuters (Aug 5, 2026, within window): 'China targets US firms and drone exports after FCC, Xinjiang actions' -- confirms in past tense that the US had already taken FCC-related export/technology restrictions and a Xinjiang forced-labor sanctions/blacklist action against China, which trigge
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 27%). Reuters (wire tier, Jul 19, 2026): 'Taiwan says Chinese vessel activity jumps, raising fears for Pacific supply routes' - confirms increased PLA naval activity near Taiwan within the window. Additionally, Focus Taiwan/Taipei Times (Jul 21, 2026) reported a PLA helicopter crossed the Taiwan Strait me
NEXUS forecast: 6% probability, resolves by 2026-08-15.
NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-07-28.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 75%). Searched for G20 bilateral/multilateral defense cooperation agreements in Indo-Pacific region between March 8-June 7, 2026. Web search returned only 3 general policy articles from March 27, March 25, and May 19, 2026, none specifically mentioning new defense cooperation agreements between G20 nation
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Searched for Japan defense cooperation announcements within evidence window (2026-05-21 to 2026-06-04). Found only one defense-related article about Japan working with U.S. on Strait of Hormuz navigation from March 17, which is outside the evidence window for this prediction. No announcements of exp
Resolved as a partial (forecast at 25%). CNY/USD and JPY/USD price data from 2026-05-19 to 2026-06-02 available. CNY/USD moved from 6.8145 to 6.7612 (strengthening yuan). JPY/USD moved from 159.035 to 159.728 (weakening yen). The currencies moved in opposite directions during most of the period, indicating negative to low positive correlat
NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-06-04.
NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-06-02.
Resolved as a partial (forecast at 9%). Right direction, wrong timing: HG moved -5.54% from 32.67 to 30.86 (predicted down). Direction correct but deadline missed by 7+ days. Target of 3.8 not reached in time.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 34%). Web search confirms Chinese military activity in South China Sea during prediction window: April 25 article 'China's Type 055 Fires YJ-20 Hypersonic Missile Near Philippines During Balikatan 2026' shows direct Chinese naval operation announcement on April 25. April 28 'Chinese Action Group Operates
NEXUS forecast: 9% probability, resolves by 2026-05-03.
NEXUS forecast: 34% probability, resolves by 2026-05-02.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 61%). USD/VND data from March 19-April 18: All daily closes remained well above 24,800. Lowest close was 26,250.31 on April 17. The pair traded in range 26,200-26,520 throughout the period. Vietnamese Dong weakened (higher USD/VND values) rather than strengthened. Zero trading days below 24,800 target. Ac
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 55%). Web search within evidence window (2026-03-19 to 2026-04-18) found no major defense procurement contracts or military cooperation agreements. Searched for 'defense contracts military procurement agreements Taiwan March 2026 April 2026' and 'defense contract military cooperation procurement agreement
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 20%). Web search within evidence window (2026-03-19 to 2026-04-18) found 7 relevant results about China infrastructure and Belt Road Initiative, but none specifically announced a major new infrastructure stimulus package or BRI expansion. Articles discuss ongoing railway construction momentum, stock analy
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 17%). Web search for Middle Eastern military base construction/expansion found extensive coverage of regional military activities and conflicts, including U.S. troop movements to Gulf region and various military operations, but no evidence of any major Middle Eastern country announcing new military base c
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 13%). Search for Asian defense contractor announcements from April 1-15, 2026 returned only one relevant source: 'China & Taiwan Update, April 3, 2026' from Institute for the Study of War, but this appears to be a general update rather than a specific defense contractor production expansion announcement.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 5%). Searched extensively for EU grain reserve announcements within evidence window 2026-03-16 to 2026-04-15. Found FAO Food Price Index report and general trade discussions but no specific announcements of EU member states implementing new strategic grain reserves or food security measures. Actual: 0 an
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 5%). Found multiple evidence within evidence window (2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10). March 20, 2026 article reports 'KF-21 Export Breakthrough: South Korea Sells 16 Fighter Jets to Indonesia' and April 7, 2026 article confirms 'South Korea Agrees to Transfer KF-21 Prototype to Indonesia'. Additionally, April
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 29%). Found evidence of India defense deals within evidence window (2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10). Article from March 27, 2026 in The Hindu reports 'India signs ₹858-crore defence deals with Russian, U.S. firms' - this includes a U.S. firm which qualifies as a Western nation. Additionally, April 9, 2026 artic
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 65%). Within evidence window 2026-03-24 to 2026-04-07, web search found 3 related articles but none specifically report Philippines announcing defense infrastructure expansion or US military cooperation enhancement. Found general articles about Japan's combat role in Philippines war games and regional sec
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). Found one article from RBC-Ukraine dated March 12, 2026 about Chinese aircraft near Taiwan, but this predates the specified March 25-April 7 window. Two other sources (ISW April 3, AEI March 27) mention China & Taiwan updates but content not accessible to verify specific named exercises or large-sca
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). Unable to obtain direct SENSEX price data from market data providers. Web search results show Reuters articles from March 13 and March 23, 2026 reporting 'India's equity benchmarks confirm correction on Iran war' and 'Indian shares fall, rupee drops to record low as Iran war rattles markets.' These
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 75%). Nifty 50: March 9 close 24,028.05 → April 7 close 22,929.65. Return = (22,929.65-24,028.05)/24,028.05 = -4.6%. Shanghai Composite: March 9 close 4,096.60 → April 7 close 3,883.48. Return = (3,883.48-4,096.60)/4,096.60 = -5.2%. Relative performance = Nifty return - Shanghai return = -4.6% - (-5.2%) =
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 60%). Web search found only one relevant article about Japan-France cooperation on critical mineral supply chains dated April 1, 2026, but this did not mention new semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions targeting China specifically. No evidence found of any G7 nation announcing
NEXUS forecast: 13% probability, resolves by 2026-04-15.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 26%). Indonesia Business Post reported on March 25, 2026: 'Indonesia's KF-21 jets enter production as Prabowo heads to Korea for preliminary deal.' This constitutes a military procurement deal announcement within the 14-day window (March 17-31). Actual: 1 deal announced, Required: at least 1 deal, 1 ≥ 1 t
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 33%). Nomad Lawyer (Mar 24, 2026): 'Vietnam Energy Nuclear: Russia Landmark Agreement 2026' indicates Vietnam announced a major infrastructure agreement with Russia regarding nuclear energy within the evidence window. This qualifies as a major infrastructure cooperation agreement. Actual: 1 agreement anno
Resolved as a partial (forecast at 9%). Copper (HG) and Aluminum (AL) price data available for March 23-30, 2026. Computing copper/aluminum ratio using March 23 prices (creation date): HG=29.02, AL=64.70, ratio=29.02/64.70=0.448. March 30 prices: HG=28.61, AL=64.80, ratio=28.61/64.80=0.441. Actual ratios around 0.44-0.45, far above target
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 5%). Web search for ASEAN naval security measures and maritime cooperation agreements within the evidence window (March 16-30) returned 0 results. The search excluded 15 results that fell outside this window but found no announcements of new naval security measures or maritime cooperation agreements by a
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 67%). No evidence of Taiwan announcing enhanced military readiness measures within the specified timeframe. Search results show: March 19, 2026 - US intelligence reports China not planning invasion by 2027, but no Taiwan military readiness announcements; March 10, 2026 - Taiwan Army exercise simulating ai
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 27%). Web search for India defense procurement contract announcements worth over $2 billion during March 11-25, 2026 returned no results. No evidence found of any defense contract announcements meeting the $2 billion threshold during the prediction window. Required: at least 1 contract. Actual: 0 contract
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 5%). Searched for Vietnam FDI incentive announcements during March 11-25, 2026. Only found 2 results within the evidence window, both about India's FDI policies (March 11 and March 13), not Vietnam announcements. No evidence found of Vietnam announcing any foreign direct investment incentives or manufact
NEXUS forecast: 65% probability, resolves by 2026-04-07.
Resolved as a partial (forecast at 72%). AUD/USD daily history available March 9-24, 2026. Lowest close was 0.6966 on March 9. All daily closes ranged from 0.6966 to 0.7129. Minimum value: 0.6911 (March 23 intraday low). Actual: 0.6911, Required: below 0.6200, 0.6911 > 0.6200 therefore threshold NOT met. AUD/USD never traded below 0.62 on
NEXUS forecast: 9% probability, resolves by 2026-03-30.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 58%). No evidence found of PBOC announcing RRR cuts, MLF rate cuts, or targeted lending facility expansions between March 7-21, 2026. Web search results show general monetary policy discussions but no specific easing measures announced during the prediction window. The absence of such significant policy a
NEXUS forecast: 55% probability, resolves by 2026-04-18.
NEXUS forecast: 20% probability, resolves by 2026-04-18.
NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-03-31.
NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-03-31.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-03-30.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-04-15.
NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-03-25.
NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-04-10.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 61%). Taiwan defense ministry announced Tianma Exercise (March 17-19) on March 8, plus Combat Training Center Rotation 2.0 (10-day continuous drills) announced March 5. Both fall within the prediction window. Originally auto-denied on prod due to GDELT search not finding the specific articles.
NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-03-24.
NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-04-07.
NEXUS forecast: 75% probability, resolves by 2026-04-07.
NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-04-06.
NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-04-07.
NEXUS forecast: 67% probability, resolves by 2026-03-26.
NEXUS forecast: 61% probability, resolves by 2026-03-11.
NEXUS forecast: 68% probability, resolves by 2026-03-31.
This tracker updates hourly from NEXUS news monitoring, published forecasts and prediction-market prices. Headlines link to their original publishers. NEXUS forecasts are recorded before their outcome and scored when they resolve. How forecasts are made and scored.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.
NEXUS forecast: 49% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.
NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 38%). Data-resolved: XLK moved from 187.28 to 189.60 (1.24%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: below 182. Target not reached. Low was 182.08.
Resolved as expired (forecast at 63%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.
NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-09-29.
NEXUS forecast: 71% probability, resolves by 2026-09-26.
NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.
NEXUS forecast: 75% probability, resolves by 2026-09-26.
NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.
NEXUS forecast: 49% probability, resolves by 2026-09-19.
NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.
NEXUS forecast: 81% probability, resolves by 2026-09-21.
ForecastChina will conduct a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-12-31.
ForecastChina will invade Taiwan by end of 2026
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-12-31.
NEXUS forecast: 45% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.
NEXUS forecast: 38% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.
NEXUS forecast: 34% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.
NEXUS forecast: 67% probability, resolves by 2026-09-30.
NEXUS forecast: 73% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 34%). Searched ASEAN-India trade agreements within evidence window (2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10). Found 6 general articles but no specific announcements of new bilateral trade or investment agreements between ASEAN members and India. Articles covered general trade topics and investment guides but did not rep
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 28%). Found evidence of Indonesia defense cooperation within prediction window: 'BrahMos Deal with Indonesia Boosts India's Indo-Pacific Strategy' (April 7, 2026) and 'Indonesia's KF-21 jets enter production as Prabowo heads to Korea for preliminary deal' (March 25, 2026). Both articles dated within March
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 59%). Data-resolved: INR moved from 18.43 to 16.55 (-10.20%) during 2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10. Target: above 83. Target not reached. High was 19.59.
Resolved as a hit (forecast at 68%). VIX price data shows spike above 25 multiple times during the prediction window: March 6 high 29.93 (close 29.49), March 9 high 35.30 (close 25.50), March 12 close 27.29, March 13 high 28.47, March 20 high 29.28, March 23 high 31.04, March 27 high 31.65 (close 31.05), March 30 high 31.52 (close 30.6
NEXUS forecast: 61% probability, resolves by 2026-04-18.
Resolved as a miss (forecast at 61%). CNY exchange rate data shows yuan STRENGTHENED against USD during prediction period. From March 7-14, 2026: CNY was at 6.8969 on March 7 (creation date) and 6.8686 on March 13 (close to deadline March 14). This represents yuan strengthening from 6.90 to 6.87 CNY per USD, a 0.44% strengthening, not t
NEXUS forecast: 17% probability, resolves by 2026-04-16.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-03-25.
NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-04-10.
NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-04-10.
NEXUS forecast: 34% probability, resolves by 2026-04-10.
NEXUS forecast: 28% probability, resolves by 2026-04-10.
NEXUS forecast: 75% probability, resolves by 2026-06-07.
NEXUS forecast: 58% probability, resolves by 2026-03-21.
NEXUS forecast: 61% probability, resolves by 2026-03-14.