China, Taiwan and the South China Sea

Latest first

1. Monday, 28 September 20261 update

   • 11:03News

     NewsChina deploys advanced WZ-7 drone for first time near Scarborough Shoal

     SCMP

     Beijing deployed its advanced WZ-7 high-altitude reconnaissance drone in the South China Sea for the first time during drills near the disputed Scarborough Shoal at the weekend. The People's Liberatio

2. Sunday, 27 September 20261 update

   • 10:29News

     NewsChina Conducts Air-Sea Exercise Near Scarborough Shoal on Sunday - Bloomberg.com

     Bloomberg

3. Saturday, 26 September 20262 updates

   • 12:17Resolved

     ResolvedChina's PLA will conduct at least one additional publicly reported large-scale military exercise or ADIZ incursion near Taiwan within 14 days.

     Resolved as a miss (forecast at 81%). [basis: absence] Searched multiple phrasings ('PLA military exercise Taiwan ADIZ incursion Sep 2026', 'Taiwan Defense Ministry PLA aircraft sorties reported September 2026', 'PLA Taiwan drills incursion warplanes', 'Taiwan spots PLA aircraft ships ADIZ incursion large-scale exercise') within the 202

   • 00:17Resolved

     ResolvedChina's coast guard or PLA will conduct a publicly reported incursion into Japanese-administered waters near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands within 14 days.

     Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). [basis: absence] Ran three differently-phrased searches ('Senkaku Islands Chinese coast guard incursion September 2026', 'China coast guard ships Japan territorial waters Diaoyu September 2026', 'Japan coast guard protest Chinese vessels Senkaku intrusion') restricted to the 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20

4. Friday, 25 September 20265 updates

   • 18:17Resolved

     ResolvedTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report at least one single day with 15 or more PLA aircraft incursions into its ADIZ within 14 days.

     Resolved as a hit (forecast at 73%). Taiwan News (other-tier, but reporting direct MND tallies) recorded: Sept 6: 21 aircraft; Sept 17: 19 aircraft; Sept 18: 28 aircraft; Sept 19: 20 aircraft -- all within the Sept 6-20 evidence window and all exceeding the 15-aircraft single-day threshold (e.g., 28 > 15 on Sept 18). No official/wire-t

   • 12:18Resolved

     ResolvedChina's PLA will conduct a single-day incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 50 aircraft by the Autumnal Equinox/Erev Yom Kippur convergence date.

     Resolved as a miss (forecast at 49%). Taiwan MND-sourced reports (official tier mnd.gov.tw Sept19; Taiwan News other-tier) within window Sep6-20, 2026 show daily PLA aircraft counts: Sep6=21 aircraft, Sep7=2, Sep13=5, Sep18=28 (highest recorded in window), Sep19=20, Sep20=5. Actual max single-day count 28 aircraft, Required >50. 28 < 50

5. Thursday, 24 September 20261 update

   • 03:33Forecast

     ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a new gray-zone military incursion (naval crossing, air intrusion into Taiwan's ADIZ, or similar coercive maneuver) near Taiwan within 14 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.

6. Wednesday, 23 September 20263 updates

   • 06:00Resolved

     ResolvedAerospace & Defense ETF ITA will outperform SPY by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 30 days, as the confirmed Taiwan Strait PLA incursions, confirmed North Korea missile tests, and dense defense-sector signal convergence (Taiwan window, DPRK Day of Sun, October 7 anniversary, Tisha B'Av) sustain defense-sector demand.

     Resolved as expired (forecast at 22%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

   • 04:33Forecast

     ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a new publicly reported gray-zone military incursion (naval, air, or coast guard) near Taiwan within 14 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.

   • 00:32Forecast

7. Tuesday, 22 September 20262 updates

   • 06:33Forecast

     ForecastChina will conduct a new gray-zone military incursion (naval or air) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.

   • 06:00Resolved

     ResolvedThe US will announce at least one additional export control, sanction, or technology-restriction action targeting Chinese firms within 30 days, continuing the pattern set by the already-confirmed August 2026 FCC/Xinjiang measures under the Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium.

     Resolved as expired (forecast at 20%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

8. Monday, 21 September 20264 updates

   • 10:33Forecast

     ForecastChina will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military incursion (major ADIZ violation, PLA naval exercise, or blockade rehearsal) near Taiwan within 14 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-05.

   • 06:05Resolved

     ResolvedXLI (industrials sector ETF) will close above $179.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as elevated defense/military spending expectations tied to the dense October geopolitical calendar (Taiwan, DPRK, October 7 anniversary) support industrial/defense-linked equities.

     Resolved as a miss (forecast at 45%). Data-resolved: XLI moved from 175.27 to 169.75 (-3.15%) during 2026-09-06 to 2026-09-20. Target: above 179. Target not reached. High was 175.71.

   • 06:05Resolved

9. Sunday, 20 September 20261 update

   • 10:34Forecast

     ForecastChina will maintain gray-zone coercive military activity against Taiwan without escalating to a full blockade through October 20, 2026.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-20.

10. Saturday, 19 September 20262 updates

    • 07:34Forecast

      ForecastChina will conduct a PLA aircraft incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ exceeding 20 sorties in a single day within 14 days, consistent with the dominant Bayesian equilibrium of sustained gray-zone escalation.

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-03.

    • 04:33Forecast

      ForecastChina will conduct a large-scale, multi-day military exercise (Joint Sword-type) encircling or partially encircling Taiwan within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-19.

11. Friday, 18 September 20261 update

    • 03:33Forecast

      ForecastChina will conduct a full-scale military invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, resolving the Polymarket question 'Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?' as YES

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-12-31.

12. Thursday, 17 September 20261 update

    • 10:32Forecast

      ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a new large-scale gray-zone military action near Taiwan (median-line crossings, ADIZ incursion surge, or live-fire exercise) within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-01.

13. Wednesday, 16 September 20261 update

    • 06:33Forecast

      ForecastChina will conduct a new significant gray-zone military incursion (naval blockade drill, large air incursion, or similar) near Taiwan within 14 days

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-09-30.

14. Tuesday, 15 September 20263 updates

    • 06:33Forecast

      ForecastChina will announce a new economic sanction, export restriction, or trade retaliation measure explicitly targeting Taiwan-linked firms within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 46% probability, resolves by 2026-10-15.

    • 03:32Forecast

      ForecastChina will announce or conduct a new large-scale military exercise in the Taiwan Strait within 14 days

      NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-09-29.

    • 01:33Forecast

      Forecast

15. Monday, 14 September 20261 update

    • 10:33Forecast

      ForecastThe United States will announce a new economic, trade, or export-control restriction targeting Chinese firms or entities linked to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 29% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.

16. Sunday, 13 September 20262 updates

    • 10:34Forecast

      ForecastTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense or a wire-tier outlet will report a new PLA naval vessel incursion into Taiwan's contiguous zone (distinct from routine ADIZ air incursions) within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 57% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.

    • 04:34Forecast

      ForecastTaiwan's Ministry of National Defense will report a single-day PLA aircraft incursion into its Air Defense Identification Zone exceeding 40 aircraft within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.

17. Saturday, 12 September 20265 updates

    • 23:32Forecast

      ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a new large-scale military exercise or show-of-force operation encircling Taiwan within 21 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-10-03.

    • 16:33Forecast

      ForecastThe United States and China will hold a new publicly confirmed military-to-military or crisis-communication dialogue related to Taiwan Strait tensions within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 54% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.

    • 14:33Forecast

      Forecast

18. Friday, 11 September 20262 updates

    • 10:33Forecast

      ForecastChina's PLA will conduct at least one new confirmed gray-zone military incursion (air/naval intrusion near Taiwan or median-line crossing) within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 81% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.

    • 05:05Resolved

      ResolvedEEM (emerging markets ETF) will close below $67.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions and Taiwan Strait/China fragile Bayesian equilibrium (30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) pressure EM equities.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 34%). Early-confirmed: EEM hit target below 67 on 2026-09-10. Current price: 67.00 (started at 68.70).

19. Thursday, 10 September 20262 updates

    • 06:33Forecast

      ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a publicly reported large-scale military exercise or show-of-force near Taiwan coinciding with the UN General Assembly week (Sept 15-26).

      NEXUS forecast: 70% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.

    • 00:34Forecast

      ForecastChina will announce a new trade, customs, or export restriction specifically targeting Taiwan-linked goods or companies within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-09-24.

20. Wednesday, 9 September 20264 updates

    • 22:33Forecast

      ForecastChina's PLA will conduct at least one publicly reported large-scale incursion (20 or more aircraft and/or vessels in a single day) into Taiwan's ADIZ or surrounding waters within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 69% probability, resolves by 2026-09-23.

    • 15:33Forecast

      ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a publicly reported multi-day joint air-and-naval exercise encircling or partially blockading Taiwan within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.

    • 11:33Forecast

      Forecast

21. Tuesday, 8 September 20263 updates

    • 16:33Forecast

      ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a single-day air incursion into Taiwan's ADIZ involving more than 30 aircraft within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 62% probability, resolves by 2026-09-22.

    • 12:33Forecast

      ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a multi-day large-scale naval exercise or blockade-simulation drill encircling Taiwan within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 58% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.

    • 05:33Forecast

      Forecast

22. Monday, 7 September 20265 updates

    • 14:33Forecast

      ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a large-scale multi-day encirclement military exercise around Taiwan involving both naval and air assets.

      NEXUS forecast: 56% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.

    • 09:34Forecast

      ForecastChina will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026.

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-12-31.

    • 06:33Forecast

      ForecastChina's PLA will conduct at least one additional publicly reported large-scale military exercise or ADIZ incursion near Taiwan within 14 days.

23. Sunday, 6 September 20267 updates

    • 15:33Forecast

      ForecastChina's PLA will conduct a large-scale incursion (20+ aircraft or equivalent naval surge) near Taiwan during the UN General Assembly / Erev Rosh Hashana convergence window.

      NEXUS forecast: 63% probability, resolves by 2026-09-13.

    • 06:05Forecast

      ForecastChina's coast guard or PLA will conduct a publicly reported incursion into Japanese-administered waters near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-09-20.

    • 02:32Forecast

      Forecast

24. Sunday, 16 August 20261 update

    • 15:03Forecast

      ForecastAerospace & Defense ETF ITA will outperform SPY by at least 5% on a cumulative basis within 30 days, as the confirmed Taiwan Strait PLA incursions, confirmed North Korea missile tests, and dense defense-sector signal convergence (Taiwan window, DPRK Day of Sun, October 7 anniversary, Tisha B'Av) sustain defense-sector demand.

      NEXUS forecast: 22% probability, resolves by 2026-09-15.

25. Saturday, 15 August 20262 updates

    • 06:04Forecast

      ForecastThe US will announce at least one additional export control, sanction, or technology-restriction action targeting Chinese firms within 30 days, continuing the pattern set by the already-confirmed August 2026 FCC/Xinjiang measures under the Taiwan Strait Bayesian equilibrium.

      NEXUS forecast: 20% probability, resolves by 2026-09-14.

    • 06:02Resolved

      ResolvedThe Taiwan Strait crisis will see at least one new US economic deterrence measure (export control, sanction, or tariff action targeting China) publicly announced within 30 days, consistent with the Bayesian equilibrium (China: Gray zone escalation; US: Economic deterrence, p=100%, fragile stability).

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 6%). Wire-tier Reuters (Aug 5, 2026, within window): 'China targets US firms and drone exports after FCC, Xinjiang actions' -- confirms in past tense that the US had already taken FCC-related export/technology restrictions and a Xinjiang forced-labor sanctions/blacklist action against China, which trigge

26. Tuesday, 28 July 20261 update

    • 06:00Resolved

      ResolvedChina's PLA will conduct at least one publicly reported military incursion, large-scale naval exercise, or ADIZ violation near Taiwan within 14 days.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 27%). Reuters (wire tier, Jul 19, 2026): 'Taiwan says Chinese vessel activity jumps, raising fears for Pacific supply routes' - confirms increased PLA naval activity near Taiwan within the window. Additionally, Focus Taiwan/Taipei Times (Jul 21, 2026) reported a PLA helicopter crossed the Taiwan Strait me

27. Thursday, 16 July 20261 update

    • 06:03Forecast

      ForecastThe Taiwan Strait crisis will see at least one new US economic deterrence measure (export control, sanction, or tariff action targeting China) publicly announced within 30 days, consistent with the Bayesian equilibrium (China: Gray zone escalation; US: Economic deterrence, p=100%, fragile stability).

      NEXUS forecast: 6% probability, resolves by 2026-08-15.

28. Tuesday, 14 July 20261 update

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastChina's PLA will conduct at least one publicly reported military incursion, large-scale naval exercise, or ADIZ violation near Taiwan within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-07-28.

29. Sunday, 7 June 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedAt least two G20 member nations will announce new bilateral or multilateral defense cooperation agreements in the Indo-Pacific region between March 8 and June 7, 2026, as the Taiwan gray-zone Nash equilibrium drives allied military posture coordination

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 75%). Searched for G20 bilateral/multilateral defense cooperation agreements in Indo-Pacific region between March 8-June 7, 2026. Web search returned only 3 general policy articles from March 27, March 25, and May 19, 2026, none specifically mentioning new defense cooperation agreements between G20 nation

30. Thursday, 4 June 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedJapan will announce expanded military cooperation agreement or defense technology sharing arrangement with at least one Indo-Pacific partner within 14 days as Taiwan Strait Crisis 53% escalation probability forces coalition strengthening

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). Searched for Japan defense cooperation announcements within evidence window (2026-05-21 to 2026-06-04). Found only one defense-related article about Japan working with U.S. on Strait of Hormuz navigation from March 17, which is outside the evidence window for this prediction. No announcements of exp

31. Tuesday, 2 June 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedThe correlation between Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY/USD) will break above 0.80 within 14 days as wartime safe-haven flows synchronize Asian currency defensive positioning amid Taiwan Strait fragile stability (25% bargaining range)

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 25%). CNY/USD and JPY/USD price data from 2026-05-19 to 2026-06-02 available. CNY/USD moved from 6.8145 to 6.7612 (strengthening yuan). JPY/USD moved from 159.035 to 159.728 (weakening yen). The currencies moved in opposite directions during most of the period, indicating negative to low positive correlat

32. Thursday, 21 May 20261 update

    • 06:05Forecast

      ForecastJapan will announce expanded military cooperation agreement or defense technology sharing arrangement with at least one Indo-Pacific partner within 14 days as Taiwan Strait Crisis 53% escalation probability forces coalition strengthening

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-06-04.

33. Tuesday, 19 May 20261 update

    • 06:04Forecast

      ForecastThe correlation between Chinese Yuan (CNY/USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY/USD) will break above 0.80 within 14 days as wartime safe-haven flows synchronize Asian currency defensive positioning amid Taiwan Strait fragile stability (25% bargaining range)

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-06-02.

34. Monday, 11 May 20261 update

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedCopper futures will close below $3.80 per pound on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as China gray zone escalation in Taiwan Strait (53% escalation probability) disrupts semiconductor demand expectations and industrial metals positioning

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 9%). Right direction, wrong timing: HG moved -5.54% from 32.67 to 30.86 (predicted down). Direction correct but deadline missed by 7+ days. Target of 3.8 not reached in time.

35. Saturday, 2 May 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedChina will announce at least one military exercise or naval operation in South China Sea within 7 days

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 34%). Web search confirms Chinese military activity in South China Sea during prediction window: April 25 article 'China's Type 055 Fires YJ-20 Hypersonic Missile Near Philippines During Balikatan 2026' shows direct Chinese naval operation announcement on April 25. April 28 'Chinese Action Group Operates

36. Sunday, 26 April 20261 update

    • 06:06Forecast

      ForecastCopper futures will close below $3.80 per pound on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as China gray zone escalation in Taiwan Strait (53% escalation probability) disrupts semiconductor demand expectations and industrial metals positioning

      NEXUS forecast: 9% probability, resolves by 2026-05-03.

37. Saturday, 25 April 20261 update

    • 06:07Forecast

      ForecastChina will announce at least one military exercise or naval operation in South China Sea within 7 days

      NEXUS forecast: 34% probability, resolves by 2026-05-02.

38. Sunday, 19 April 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedVietnamese Dong (USD/VND) will strengthen below 24,800 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as South China Sea tensions drive safe-haven demand to regional economies outside direct conflict zones

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 61%). USD/VND data from March 19-April 18: All daily closes remained well above 24,800. Lowest close was 26,250.31 on April 17. The pair traded in range 26,200-26,520 throughout the period. Vietnamese Dong weakened (higher USD/VND values) rather than strengthened. Zero trading days below 24,800 target. Ac

39. Saturday, 18 April 20262 updates

    • 06:06Resolved

      ResolvedDefense sector will announce at least 3 major procurement contracts or military cooperation agreements within 30 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability (53%) drives deterrence spending

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 55%). Web search within evidence window (2026-03-19 to 2026-04-18) found no major defense procurement contracts or military cooperation agreements. Searched for 'defense contracts military procurement agreements Taiwan March 2026 April 2026' and 'defense contract military cooperation procurement agreement

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedChina will announce at least one major infrastructure stimulus package or Belt and Road Initiative expansion within 30 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation reaches Nash equilibrium requiring economic stabilization

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 20%). Web search within evidence window (2026-03-19 to 2026-04-18) found 7 relevant results about China infrastructure and Belt Road Initiative, but none specifically announced a major new infrastructure stimulus package or BRI expansion. Articles discuss ongoing railway construction momentum, stock analy

40. Thursday, 16 April 20261 update

    • 06:06Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one major Middle Eastern country will announce new military base construction or expansion within 30 days as the wartime regime and 53% Taiwan escalation probability drive regional defense positioning

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 17%). Web search for Middle Eastern military base construction/expansion found extensive coverage of regional military activities and conflicts, including U.S. troop movements to Gulf region and various military operations, but no evidence of any major Middle Eastern country announcing new military base c

41. Wednesday, 15 April 20262 updates

    • 06:07Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one major Asian defense contractor will announce emergency production capacity expansion or government contract within 14 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% and Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence drive regional military procurement

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 13%). Search for Asian defense contractor announcements from April 1-15, 2026 returned only one relevant source: 'China & Taiwan Update, April 3, 2026' from Institute for the Study of War, but this appears to be a general update rather than a specific defense contractor production expansion announcement.

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one European Union member state will announce new strategic grain reserve purchases or food security measures within 30 days as the collapsed US-China bargaining range (0%) and 53% Taiwan Strait escalation probability create supply chain diversification urgency

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 5%). Searched extensively for EU grain reserve announcements within evidence window 2026-03-16 to 2026-04-15. Found FAO Food Price Index report and general trade discussions but no specific announcements of EU member states implementing new strategic grain reserves or food security measures. Actual: 0 an

42. Friday, 10 April 20265 updates

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedIndonesia will announce at least one new defense cooperation agreement or military procurement contract within 30 days as Strait of Malacca strategic importance increases amid Taiwan gray zone escalation

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 5%). Found multiple evidence within evidence window (2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10). March 20, 2026 article reports 'KF-21 Export Breakthrough: South Korea Sells 16 Fighter Jets to Indonesia' and April 7, 2026 article confirms 'South Korea Agrees to Transfer KF-21 Prototype to Indonesia'. Additionally, April

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedIndia will announce at least one new defense procurement or strategic partnership agreement with a Western nation within 30 days as Taiwan gray-zone escalation and supply chain diversification away from China create strategic alignment opportunities

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 29%). Found evidence of India defense deals within evidence window (2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10). Article from March 27, 2026 in The Hindu reports 'India signs ₹858-crore defence deals with Russian, U.S. firms' - this includes a U.S. firm which qualifies as a Western nation. Additionally, April 9, 2026 artic

43. Thursday, 9 April 20261 update

    • 06:07Resolved

      ResolvedPhilippines will announce at least one significant defense infrastructure expansion or US military cooperation enhancement within 14 days as South China Sea tensions escalate during gray zone conflict scenario

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 65%). Within evidence window 2026-03-24 to 2026-04-07, web search found 3 related articles but none specifically report Philippines announcing defense infrastructure expansion or US military cooperation enhancement. Found general articles about Japan's combat role in Philippines war games and regional sec

44. Wednesday, 8 April 20261 update

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedThe PLA will conduct at least one named military exercise or large-scale naval patrol in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters between March 25 and April 7, 2026, coinciding with the intensity-5 Erev Pesach/Taiwan Strait Tension Window convergence on March 31

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). Found one article from RBC-Ukraine dated March 12, 2026 about Chinese aircraft near Taiwan, but this predates the specified March 25-April 7 window. Two other sources (ISW April 3, AEI March 27) mention China & Taiwan updates but content not accessible to verify specific named exercises or large-sca

45. Tuesday, 7 April 20262 updates

    • 06:08Resolved

      ResolvedIndia's SENSEX index will close at a new 30-day high on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as supply chain redirection away from China (driven by Taiwan gray-zone escalation) and relative geopolitical insulation channel capital flows toward Indian equities

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). Unable to obtain direct SENSEX price data from market data providers. Web search results show Reuters articles from March 13 and March 23, 2026 reporting 'India's equity benchmarks confirm correction on Iran war' and 'Indian shares fall, rupee drops to record low as Iran war rattles markets.' These

    • 06:07Resolved

      ResolvedIndia's Nifty 50 index will outperform the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) by at least 3% on a relative basis during the 30-day period ending April 7, 2026, as Taiwan gray-zone escalation penalizes China-exposed indices while India benefits from supply chain redirection and relative geopolitical insulation

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 75%). Nifty 50: March 9 close 24,028.05 → April 7 close 22,929.65. Return = (22,929.65-24,028.05)/24,028.05 = -4.6%. Shanghai Composite: March 9 close 4,096.60 → April 7 close 3,883.48. Return = (3,883.48-4,096.60)/4,096.60 = -5.2%. Relative performance = Nifty return - Shanghai return = -4.6% - (-5.2%) =

46. Monday, 6 April 20261 update

    • 06:06Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one G7 nation will announce new semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions targeting China within 30 days, as gray zone Taiwan Strait escalation triggers economic deterrence responses consistent with the Nash equilibrium outcome

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 60%). Web search found only one relevant article about Japan-France cooperation on critical mineral supply chains dated April 1, 2026, but this did not mention new semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions targeting China specifically. No evidence found of any G7 nation announcing

47. Wednesday, 1 April 20261 update

    • 04:04Forecast

      ForecastAt least one major Asian defense contractor will announce emergency production capacity expansion or government contract within 14 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability of 53% and Mars-Saturn Conjunction convergence drive regional military procurement

      NEXUS forecast: 13% probability, resolves by 2026-04-15.

48. Tuesday, 31 March 20263 updates

    • 00:05Resolved

      ResolvedIndonesia will announce at least one new defense cooperation agreement or military procurement deal within 14 days as South China Sea tensions escalate and the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence approaches

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 26%). Indonesia Business Post reported on March 25, 2026: 'Indonesia's KF-21 jets enter production as Prabowo heads to Korea for preliminary deal.' This constitutes a military procurement deal announcement within the 14-day window (March 17-31). Actual: 1 deal announced, Required: at least 1 deal, 1 ≥ 1 t

    • 00:05Resolved

      ResolvedVietnam will announce at least one major infrastructure or defense cooperation agreement within 14 days as South China Sea tensions and regional shipping security concerns drive strategic partnerships

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 33%). Nomad Lawyer (Mar 24, 2026): 'Vietnam Energy Nuclear: Russia Landmark Agreement 2026' indicates Vietnam announced a major infrastructure agreement with Russia regarding nuclear energy within the evidence window. This qualifies as a major infrastructure cooperation agreement. Actual: 1 agreement anno

49. Monday, 30 March 20262 updates

    • 10:02Resolved

      ResolvedIndustrial metals complex (copper/aluminum ratio) will decline below 12.0 within 7 days as China's gray zone Taiwan escalation (53% probability) shifts manufacturing expectations while energy-intensive aluminum production faces disruption risks

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 9%). Copper (HG) and Aluminum (AL) price data available for March 23-30, 2026. Computing copper/aluminum ratio using March 23 prices (creation date): HG=29.02, AL=64.70, ratio=29.02/64.70=0.448. March 30 prices: HG=28.61, AL=64.80, ratio=28.61/64.80=0.441. Actual ratios around 0.44-0.45, far above target

    • 00:03Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one ASEAN member nation will announce new naval security measures or maritime cooperation agreements within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation (53% probability) threatens South China Sea shipping lanes

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 5%). Web search for ASEAN naval security measures and maritime cooperation agreements within the evidence window (March 16-30) returned 0 results. The search excluded 15 results that fell outside this window but found no announcements of new naval security measures or maritime cooperation agreements by a

50. Thursday, 26 March 20261 update

    • 00:03Resolved

      ResolvedTaiwan will announce enhanced military readiness measures within 7 days of March 19 as Vernal Equinox convergence intensifies regional tensions

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 67%). No evidence of Taiwan announcing enhanced military readiness measures within the specified timeframe. Search results show: March 19, 2026 - US intelligence reports China not planning invasion by 2027, but no Taiwan military readiness announcements; March 10, 2026 - Taiwan Army exercise simulating ai

51. Wednesday, 25 March 20262 updates

    • 00:04Resolved

      ResolvedIndia will announce at least one new defense procurement contract worth over $2 billion within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation drives Indo-Pacific alliance military modernization

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 27%). Web search for India defense procurement contract announcements worth over $2 billion during March 11-25, 2026 returned no results. No evidence found of any defense contract announcements meeting the $2 billion threshold during the prediction window. Required: at least 1 contract. Actual: 0 contract

    • 00:03Resolved

      ResolvedVietnam will announce at least one new foreign direct investment incentive or manufacturing partnership within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation drives supply chain diversification away from China

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 5%). Searched for Vietnam FDI incentive announcements during March 11-25, 2026. Only found 2 results within the evidence window, both about India's FDI policies (March 11 and March 13), not Vietnam announcements. No evidence found of Vietnam announcing any foreign direct investment incentives or manufact

52. Tuesday, 24 March 20262 updates

    • 12:04Forecast

      ForecastPhilippines will announce at least one significant defense infrastructure expansion or US military cooperation enhancement within 14 days as South China Sea tensions escalate during gray zone conflict scenario

      NEXUS forecast: 65% probability, resolves by 2026-04-07.

    • 00:03Resolved

      ResolvedThe Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) will trade below 0.6200 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as China's gray zone Taiwan escalation reduces commodity demand expectations and risk-off positioning favors USD safe haven flows

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 72%). AUD/USD daily history available March 9-24, 2026. Lowest close was 0.6966 on March 9. All daily closes ranged from 0.6966 to 0.7129. Minimum value: 0.6911 (March 23 intraday low). Actual: 0.6911, Required: below 0.6200, 0.6911 > 0.6200 therefore threshold NOT met. AUD/USD never traded below 0.62 on

53. Monday, 23 March 20261 update

    • 22:53Forecast

      ForecastIndustrial metals complex (copper/aluminum ratio) will decline below 12.0 within 7 days as China's gray zone Taiwan escalation (53% probability) shifts manufacturing expectations while energy-intensive aluminum production faces disruption risks

      NEXUS forecast: 9% probability, resolves by 2026-03-30.

54. Saturday, 21 March 20261 update

    • 07:01Resolved

      ResolvedThe PBOC will announce at least one monetary easing measure (RRR cut, MLF rate cut, or targeted lending facility expansion) within 14 days as China manages gray zone Taiwan escalation's economic fallout and supports weakening domestic demand

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 58%). No evidence found of PBOC announcing RRR cuts, MLF rate cuts, or targeted lending facility expansions between March 7-21, 2026. Web search results show general monetary policy discussions but no specific easing measures announced during the prediction window. The absence of such significant policy a

55. Thursday, 19 March 20264 updates

    • 21:07Forecast

      ForecastDefense sector will announce at least 3 major procurement contracts or military cooperation agreements within 30 days as Taiwan Strait escalation probability (53%) drives deterrence spending

      NEXUS forecast: 55% probability, resolves by 2026-04-18.

    • 06:58Forecast

      ForecastChina will announce at least one major infrastructure stimulus package or Belt and Road Initiative expansion within 30 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation reaches Nash equilibrium requiring economic stabilization

      NEXUS forecast: 20% probability, resolves by 2026-04-18.

    • 04:03Forecast

56. Tuesday, 17 March 20263 updates

    • 12:03Forecast

      ForecastIndonesia will announce at least one new defense cooperation agreement or military procurement deal within 14 days as South China Sea tensions escalate and the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence approaches

      NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-03-31.

    • 08:03Forecast

      ForecastVietnam will announce at least one major infrastructure or defense cooperation agreement within 14 days as South China Sea tensions and regional shipping security concerns drive strategic partnerships

      NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-03-31.

    • 01:05Forecast

57. Monday, 16 March 20262 updates

    • 12:03Forecast

      ForecastAt least one ASEAN member nation will announce new naval security measures or maritime cooperation agreements within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation (53% probability) threatens South China Sea shipping lanes

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-03-30.

    • 08:03Forecast

      ForecastAt least one European Union member state will announce new strategic grain reserve purchases or food security measures within 30 days as the collapsed US-China bargaining range (0%) and 53% Taiwan Strait escalation probability create supply chain diversification urgency

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-04-15.

58. Wednesday, 11 March 20267 updates

    • 05:41Forecast

      ForecastIndia will announce at least one new defense procurement contract worth over $2 billion within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation drives Indo-Pacific alliance military modernization

      NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-03-25.

    • 05:40Forecast

      ForecastThe Indian Rupee (USD/INR) will strengthen below 83.00 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as supply chain redirection from China-Taiwan tensions and oil import diversification create relative currency strength

      NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-04-10.

    • 05:40Forecast

59. Tuesday, 10 March 20262 updates

    • 14:00Resolved

      ResolvedTaiwan will announce at least one new military drill or exercise within 48 hours of the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 61%). Taiwan defense ministry announced Tianma Exercise (March 17-19) on March 8, plus Combat Training Center Rotation 2.0 (10-day continuous drills) announced March 5. Both fall within the prediction window. Originally auto-denied on prod due to GDELT search not finding the specific articles.

    • 02:52Forecast

      ForecastThe Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) will trade below 0.6200 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as China's gray zone Taiwan escalation reduces commodity demand expectations and risk-off positioning favors USD safe haven flows

      NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-03-24.

60. Sunday, 8 March 20263 updates

    • 11:23Forecast

      ForecastIndia's SENSEX index will close at a new 30-day high on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as supply chain redirection away from China (driven by Taiwan gray-zone escalation) and relative geopolitical insulation channel capital flows toward Indian equities

      NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-04-07.

    • 07:59Forecast

      ForecastIndia's Nifty 50 index will outperform the Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) by at least 3% on a relative basis during the 30-day period ending April 7, 2026, as Taiwan gray-zone escalation penalizes China-exposed indices while India benefits from supply chain redirection and relative geopolitical insulation

      NEXUS forecast: 75% probability, resolves by 2026-04-07.

    • 05:59Forecast

61. Saturday, 7 March 20264 updates

    • 23:22Forecast

      ForecastAt least one G7 nation will announce new semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions targeting China within 30 days, as gray zone Taiwan Strait escalation triggers economic deterrence responses consistent with the Nash equilibrium outcome

      NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-04-06.

    • 23:06Forecast

      ForecastThe PLA will conduct at least one named military exercise or large-scale naval patrol in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters between March 25 and April 7, 2026, coinciding with the intensity-5 Erev Pesach/Taiwan Strait Tension Window convergence on March 31

      NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-04-07.

    • 23:06Forecast

62. Friday, 6 March 20261 update

    • 02:59Forecast

      ForecastTaiwan will announce enhanced military readiness measures within 7 days of March 19 as Vernal Equinox convergence intensifies regional tensions

      NEXUS forecast: 67% probability, resolves by 2026-03-26.

63. Wednesday, 4 March 20262 updates

    • 16:00Forecast

      ForecastTaiwan will announce at least one new military drill or exercise within 48 hours of the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence

      NEXUS forecast: 61% probability, resolves by 2026-03-11.

    • 13:22Forecast

      ForecastVIX will spike above 25 during the March 31 Erev Pesach convergence as Taiwan Strait tensions escalate with at least one major military exercise announcement by PLA

      NEXUS forecast: 68% probability, resolves by 2026-03-31.