The United States will conduct or publicly announce a naval transit or joint military exercise in or near the Taiwan Strait within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-23 at 70% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-07.

Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis equilibrium (China: gray zone escalation, US: economic deterrence, p=100%, fragile stability, 30% coalition stability, critical fracture risk) indicating continued US deterrence posture during the active Taiwan Strait tension window.

Probability: 70%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Oct 7in 8d
Made: Sep 23

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The United States will conduct or publicly announce a naval transit or joint military exercise in or near the Taiwan Strait within 14 days.

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