HITBrier 0.515

Found evidence of Indonesia defense cooperation within prediction window: 'BrahMos Deal with Indonesia Boosts India's Indo-Pacific Strategy' (April 7, 2026) and 'Indonesia's KF-21 jets enter production as Prabowo heads to Korea for preliminary deal' (March 25, 2026). Both articles dated within March 11 - April 10, 2026 evidence window. India (BrahMos deal) and South Korea (KF-21 jets) are non-Chinese partners. Target: ≥1 agreement. Actual: 2 agreements found (India BrahMos, South Korea KF-21). 2 ≥ 1 therefore threshold met.

Resolved Apr 10, 2026

Geopolitical

Indonesia will announce at least one new military procurement or defense cooperation agreement with a non-Chinese partner within 30 days as regional powers hedge against Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 28% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.515.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis Bayesian equilibrium showing China gray zone escalation (53% escalation probability) driving regional defense realignment. Base rate for defense cooperation announcements (25% per month) elevated by regional tension. Compound probability: P(Taiwan tensions persist) * P(Indonesia hedging | tensions) = 0.75 * 0.77 = 0.58

Probability: 28%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Indonesia will announce at least one new military procurement or defense cooperation agreement with a non-Chinese partner within 30 days as regional powers hedge against Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation

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