MISSBrier 0.346

Data-resolved: INR moved from 18.43 to 16.55 (-10.20%) during 2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10. Target: above 83. Target not reached. High was 19.59.

Resolved Apr 10, 2026

Market

LONG wrongINR

The Indian Rupee (USD/INR) will strengthen below 83.00 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as supply chain redirection from China-Taiwan tensions and oil import diversification create relative currency strength

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 59% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.346.

Derived from: Multiple Bayesian scenarios (Taiwan 53% escalation, Iran nuclear Fearon failure) favor India as beneficiary of supply chain redirection and energy security plays. Current USD/INR ~84.12 provides cushion. Compound probability: P(redirection_occurs) * P(rupee_strength|redirection) = 0.75 * 0.88 = 0.66

Probability: 59%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 11

Price Target$83

Regimepeacetime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The Indian rupee (INR) will strengthen below 82.50 per USD on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as supply chain redirection away from China benefits Indian manufacturing and reduces current account deficit

market55%MISS

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

The Indian Rupee (USD/INR) will strengthen below 83.00 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as supply chain redirection from China-Taiwan tensions and oil import diversification create relative currency strength

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture