The Indian rupee (INR) will strengthen below 82.50 per USD on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as supply chain redirection away from China benefits Indian manufacturing and reduces current account deficit

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-11 at 55% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-10. Brier score 0.303.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation Nash equilibrium driving supply chain diversification. India positioned as primary China alternative. Historical precedent: 2018-2019 trade war period saw similar INR strength from supply chain benefits. Compound probability: P(gray zone escalation) * P(INR benefits from redirection) = 0.53 * 1.04 = 0.55.

Probability

55%

Timeframe

30 days

Deadline

Apr 10172d ago

Made

Mar 11

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.