MISSBrier 0.360

Web search found only one relevant article about Japan-France cooperation on critical mineral supply chains dated April 1, 2026, but this did not mention new semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions targeting China specifically. No evidence found of any G7 nation announcing new semiconductor export controls targeting China within the evidence window. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 6, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one G7 nation will announce new semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions targeting China within 30 days, as gray zone Taiwan Strait escalation triggers economic deterrence responses consistent with the Nash equilibrium outcome

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 60% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-06. Brier score 0.360.

Derived from: Game theory Taiwan Strait Crisis most likely outcome 'China chooses Gray zone escalation; US chooses Economic deterrence' at 70% confidence. The Erev Pesach intensity-5 convergence on March 31 tagged with Taiwan Strait Tension Window and sectors semiconductors/defense. Active thesis states US responds to gray zone with economic deterrence.

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 6176d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The PLA will conduct at least one named military exercise or large-scale naval patrol in the Taiwan Strait or surrounding waters between March 25 and April 7, 2026, coinciding with the intensity-5 Erev Pesach/Taiwan Strait Tension Window convergence on March 31

geopolitical72%MISS

Saudi Arabia will publicly signal or leak intention to deepen oil production cuts ahead of the June 1 OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting, with at least one credible report of Saudi voluntary cut extension or deepening emerging before April 6, 2026

geopolitical65%HIT

At least one DPRK ballistic missile or satellite launch will occur within the 7-day window surrounding the Nowruz/Vernal Equinox convergence on March 19, as North Korea exploits global attention on Iran assessment dynamics to advance its own deterrent posture

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At least one G7 nation will announce new semiconductor export controls or technology transfer restrictions targeting China within 30 days, as gray zone Taiwan Strait escalation triggers economic deterrence responses consistent with the Nash equilibrium outcome

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